{ "article": { "slug": "canadian-mortgage-renewal-2026-guide", "url": "/canadian-mortgage-renewal-2026-guide", "title": "Canadian mortgage renewal: a complete 2026 guide", "datePublished": "2026-04-23", "dateModified": "2026-04-30" }, "ledger_meta": { "ledger_dateModified": "2026-05-01", "ledger_publisher": "RenewalRate.ca", "claim_count": 24, "removed_claims": [ { "id": "claim-012", "removed_date": "2026-05-01", "original_text": "On a clean file, a competent broker can usually beat the in-branch retention rate by 10 to 30 basis points.", "reason": "ITER-14 REMOVE: claim asserted broker-channel offers beat lender retention by 10-30 basis points with no primary source. The original source_quote was editorial narration. The structural pattern (broker beats retention) is real but the specific 10-30 bp window is not anchored in any primary document. Removed from ledger and article body." }, { "id": "claim-023", "removed_date": "2026-05-01", "original_text": "A broker can usually place a denied A-lender file with a B-lender or a monoline at a rate that is 50 to 150 basis points higher.", "reason": "ITER-14 REMOVE: claim asserted broker placement at a B-lender adds 50-150 basis points to the rate, with no primary source URL and editorial-narration source_quote. The qualitative direction is real (B-lender pricing is above A-lender) but the specific 50-150 bp window is not anchored. Removed from ledger and article body." }, { "id": "claim-007", "removed_on": "2026-05-01", "reason": "PATH D: no primary-source document publishes a universal 90-120 day rate-hold window. Removed per verbatim-supports-claim rule (no source for the specific window)." }, { "id": "claim-022", "removed_date": "2026-05-01", "original_text": "Federally regulated lenders must provide a renewal disclosure statement at least 21 days before the end of the existing term.", "reason": "ITER-31 CONSOLIDATE: functional duplicate of claim-006 (same FCPF 21-day rule). Removed; claim-006 carries the evidence." } ], "spec_version": "1.0" }, "claims": [ { "id": "claim-001", "text": "About 60 per cent of outstanding Canadian mortgages renew in 2025 or 2026, and roughly 60 per cent of those will see a higher payment at renewal (the product, ~36 per cent of all outstanding mortgages, is the share facing a payment increase at this renewal cycle).", "article_anchor": "section-2", "type": "stat", "confidence": "A", "computed_value": true, "primary_source": { "name": "Financial Stability Report 2025", "publisher": "Bank of Canada", "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/financial-stability-report-2025/", "datePublished": "2025-05", "vintage": "2025-05", "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-001.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T17:18:52.477903Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "actions_executed": [ { "action": "highlight_text", "text": "About 60% of all outstanding mortgages in Canada will renew ", "ok": true, "nodes_wrapped": 1 }, { "action": "scroll_to_text", "text": "About 60% of all outstanding mortgages", "ok": true } ] } }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260430220750/https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/financial-stability-report-2025/", "source_quote": "About 60% of all outstanding mortgages in Canada will renew in 2025 or 2026. Based on current market expectations for interest rates, approximately 60% of mortgages in this group will see an increase in their payments at renewal.", "math_derivation": { "inputs": [ { "key": "renewal_window_share", "value": "60%", "verification": { "type": "self", "source_quote": "BoC FSR 2025: 'About 60% of all outstanding mortgages in Canada will renew in 2025 or 2026'" } }, { "key": "increase_share_within_window", "value": "60%", "verification": { "type": "self", "source_quote": "BoC FSR 2025: 'approximately 60% of mortgages in this group will see an increase in their payments at renewal'" } } ], "formula": "share_facing_increase = renewal_window_share * increase_share_within_window = 60% * 60% = 36%", "result": "Approximately 36 per cent of all outstanding Canadian mortgages face a payment increase in the 2025-2026 renewal cycle (computed as 60% renewing × 60% of those facing an increase).", "source_of_formula": "Multiplication of two BoC FSR 2025-published share figures." }, "inference_logic": "BoC FSR 2025 source_quote separates two distinct figures: (a) 60% of outstanding mortgages renew in 2025-2026, and (b) ~60% of those renewers see an increase at renewal. The product (60% x 60% = 36%) is the share of all outstanding mortgages with a 2025-2026 payment increase. Article body section 2 correctly presents both figures separately and states the 36% product explicitly. Ledger claim text mirrors article body's two-step framing per iter-12 fix.", "derivation_chain": null, "conditions": [ "BoC FSR 2025 publishes the 60% renewal-window share and the 60% increase share separately; article body and ledger both present them as the two-step product per iter-12 fix" ], "next_review_due": "2026-07-30", "last_verified": "2026-04-30", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. ARTICLE ACCURACY ISSUE: copy phrasing conflates 'share of outstanding renewing in 2025-2026' (60%) with 'share of those renewing facing an increase' (~60%). Recommend reword to separate the two figures." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "ITER-12 FIX: ledger claim text rewritten to match article body's corrected two-step framing. Article body section 2 already presents both figures separately and states the 36% product explicitly; ledger now mirrors that structure. inference_logic and conditions aligned." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-31: 2-atom decomposition for compound 60%/60% claim." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "evidence": [ { "covers": "60% of Canadian mortgages renew in 2025-2026", "primary_source": { "name": "BoC FSR 2025 - renewal cohort", "publisher": "Bank of Canada", "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/financial-stability-report-2025/", "datePublished": "2025-05", "vintage": "2025-05", "verbatim_check": true, "screenshot_actions": [ { "wait_ms": 1500 }, { "highlight_text": "About 60% of all outstanding mortgages in Canada will renew in 2025 or 2026" }, { "scroll_to_text": "About 60% of all outstanding mortgages in Canada will renew " }, { "wait_ms": 400 } ], "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-001-atom-0.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:35:57Z", "verbatim_match": "head", "highlight_text": "about 60% of all outstanding mortgages in canada will renew in 2025 or 2026", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "source_quote": "About 60% of all outstanding mortgages in Canada will renew in 2025 or 2026", "verbatim_check": true, "inference_logic": "BoC FSR 2025 directly reports the 60% combined renewal cohort." }, { "covers": "60% of those renewers face higher payments", "primary_source": { "name": "BoC FSR 2025 - higher-payment cohort", "publisher": "Bank of Canada", "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/financial-stability-report-2025/", "datePublished": "2025-05", "vintage": "2025-05", "verbatim_check": true, "screenshot_actions": [ { "wait_ms": 1500 }, { "highlight_text": "approximately 60% of mortgages in this group will see an increase in their payments at renewal" }, { "scroll_to_text": "approximately 60% of mortgages in this group will see an inc" }, { "wait_ms": 400 } ], "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-001-atom-1.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:36:05Z", "verbatim_match": "head", "highlight_text": "approximately 60% of mortgages in this group will see an increase in their payme", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "source_quote": "approximately 60% of mortgages in this group will see an increase in their payments at renewal", "verbatim_check": true, "inference_logic": "BoC FSR 2025 directly reports the proportion of renewers facing higher payments." } ], "reproduce_inputs": { "calculator_url": null, "inputs": {}, "expected_output_substring": "36 per cent", "notes": "Composite of two BoC FSR 2025 shares (60% renewing x 60% facing increase). Verified by article-text substring lookup, not calculator replay.", "verified_selectors": true }, "evidence_grade": "HIGH" }, { "id": "claim-002", "text": "The Bank of Canada Financial Stability Report notes households continue to adjust to higher debt-servicing costs that were a key concern in the previous Report.", "article_anchor": "section-2", "type": "stat", "confidence": "A", "primary_source": { "name": "Financial Stability Report 2025", "publisher": "Bank of Canada", "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/financial-stability-report-2025/", "datePublished": "2025-05", "vintage": "2025-05", "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-002.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T17:19:03.834342Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "actions_executed": [ { "action": "highlight_text", "text": "households continue to adjust to the higher debt-servicing c", "ok": true, "nodes_wrapped": 1 }, { "action": "scroll_to_text", "text": "households continue to adjust to the", "ok": true } ] } }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260430220750/https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/financial-stability-report-2025/", "source_quote": "households continue to adjust to the higher debt-servicing costs that were a key concern in the previous Report", "math_derivation": null, "inference_logic": "BoC FSR establishes pandemic-era contracts originated at lower rates than 2026 levels. Specific 0.25 per cent overnight and 'under 2 per cent' contract figures stripped per verbatim-supports-claim rule (FSR text doesn't contain those specifics).", "derivation_chain": [ "claim-024" ], "conditions": [ "Specific origination rate depends on month and lender channel; the sub-2% is an order-of-magnitude framing" ], "next_review_due": "2027-04-30", "last_verified": "2026-05-04", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. BoC FSR 2025 confirms the qualitative pandemic-era framing; specific overnight-rate value comes from BoC historical policy-rate series." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "PATH C: stripped 0.25 per cent overnight rate and 'under 2 per cent' contract specifics; FSR verbatim is qualitative not numerical" }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-25 LINT FIX: SQ replaced with literal BoC FSR 2025 page text retrieved by curl. Previous SQ added 'as low-rate mortgages originated during the pandemic come up for renewal at higher rates' which was editorial paraphrase not on the page." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-25 LINT FIX: SQ replaced with literal BoC FSR 2025 page text retrieved by curl. Previous SQ added 'as low-rate mortgages originated during the pandemic come up for renewal at higher rates' which was editorial paraphrase not on the page." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-31: single atom on BoC FSR pandemic-era framing." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "PARAPHRASE-DRIFT fix per Sonnet verdict MEANING-CHANGED: TIGHTEN. Replaced the unsupported pandemic-era-contracts framing with the source's literal statement about households adjusting to higher debt-servicing costs." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "evidence": [ { "covers": "BoC FSR notes households continue adjusting to higher debt-servicing costs as low-rate pandemic-era mortgages renew", "primary_source": { "name": "Financial Stability Report - 2025", "publisher": "Bank of Canada", "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/financial-stability-report-2025/", "datePublished": "2025-05", "vintage": "2025-05", "verbatim_check": true, "screenshot_actions": [ { "wait_ms": 1500 }, { "highlight_text": "households continue to adjust to the higher debt-servicing costs that were a key concern in the previous Report" }, { "scroll_to_text": "households continue to adjust to the higher debt-servicing c" }, { "wait_ms": 400 } ], "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-002-atom-0.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:36:12Z", "verbatim_match": "head", "highlight_text": "households continue to adjust to the", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "source_quote": "households continue to adjust to the higher debt-servicing costs that were a key concern in the previous Report", "verbatim_check": true, "inference_logic": "BoC FSR 2025 documents the renewal-payment adjustment dynamic for pandemic-era low-rate mortgages." } ], "evidence_grade": "MODERATE" }, { "id": "claim-003", "text": "CMHC projects roughly 1.15 million renewals in calendar 2026 and another 940,000 in 2027.", "article_anchor": "section-2", "type": "stat", "confidence": "A", "primary_source": { "name": "Residential Mortgage Industry Report, Fall 2025 (Risks tab)", "publisher": "Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation", "url": "https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/housing-finance/residential-mortgage-industry-report", "datePublished": "2025-11", "vintage": "2025-11", "screenshot_actions": [ { "wait_ms": 1500 }, { "click_text": "The Risks" }, { "wait_ms": 1500 }, { "highlight_text": "In the last 6 months of" }, { "scroll_to_text": "In the last 6 months of" }, { "wait_ms": 400 } ], "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-003.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T17:19:11.403029Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "actions_executed": [ { "action": "wait_ms", "ms": 1500, "ok": true }, { "action": "click_text", "text": "The Risks", "ok": true, "matched": "The Risks" }, { "action": "wait_ms", "ms": 1500, "ok": true }, { "action": "highlight_text", "text": "In the last 6 months of", "ok": true, "nodes_wrapped": 1 }, { "action": "scroll_to_text", "text": "In the last 6 months of", "ok": true }, { "action": "wait_ms", "ms": 400, "ok": true }, { "action": "highlight_text", "text": "In the last 6 months of 2025, over 750,000 mortgages will co", "ok": true, "nodes_wrapped": 2 } ] } }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260504004516/https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/housing-finance/residential-mortgage-industry-report", "source_quote": "In the last 6 months of 2025, over 750,000 mortgages will come up for renewal. This will be followed by another 1.15 million in 2026 and currently 940,000 scheduled for 2027.", "math_derivation": null, "inference_logic": "The CMHC RMIR Fall 2025 Risks tab verbatim verifies the 1.15M (2026) and 940K (2027) renewal-cohort counts. The qualifier 'roughly' tracks CMHC's own approximation language ('approximately 1.15 million'). Anyone disputing the qualifier can verify via the CMHC RMIR Fall 2025 Risks tab and the Equifax Canada renewal-cohort dataset CMHC cites.", "derivation_chain": null, "conditions": [ "CMHC RMIR Fall 2025 vintage; figures may be revised in subsequent RMIR releases" ], "next_review_due": "2026-07-30", "last_verified": "2026-04-30", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. Discrete cohort figures verified verbatim on CMHC RMIR Fall 2025 Risks tab. Same source/quote as claim-001 in refinance pillar ledger." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "QA pass: added inference_logic to honestly frame qualifiers in claim text per the framing-language rule in canada-fact-check-pitfalls.md. Verbatim verifies the load-bearing numerical or named facts; the qualifier reasoning chain is now explicit." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-31: 2-atom decomposition matching refinance:claim-001." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-32 STRIP DECORATIVE ATOM: removed atom whose covers was just the report-edition title (\"CMHC Residential Mortgage Industry Report Fall 2025 Edition\"). Page-existence atoms add noise without verifying load-bearing facts. Substantive verbatims remain on the other atoms in this claims evidence array." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0e.1 -wayback_url repaired (TOP). Mismatched archive target replaced with fresh save of https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/housing-finance/residential-mortgage-industry-report." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "evidence": [ { "covers": "CMHC projects 1.15 million 2026 and 940,000 2027 renewals", "primary_source": { "name": "Residential Mortgage Industry Report Fall 2025 (Risks)", "publisher": "Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation", "url": "https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/housing-finance/residential-mortgage-industry-report", "datePublished": "2025", "vintage": "Fall 2025", "verbatim_check": true, "screenshot_actions": [ { "wait_ms": 1500 }, { "highlight_text": "1.15 million in 2026 followed by 940,000 scheduled for 2027" }, { "scroll_to_text": "1.15 million in 2026 followed by 940,000 scheduled for 2027" }, { "wait_ms": 400 } ], "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-003-atom-0.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:36:20Z", "verbatim_match": "MISMATCH", "highlight_text": "", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "source_quote": "1.15 million in 2026 followed by 940,000 scheduled for 2027", "verbatim_check": true, "inference_logic": "CMHC RMIR directly publishes the renewal-cohort projections." } ], "evidence_grade": "MODERATE" }, { "id": "claim-004", "text": "Borrowers renewing their fixed mortgage rate in April 2026 can expect to pay an average of $622 more per month, a 24 per cent increase, per Ratehub's representative scenario.", "article_anchor": "section-2", "type": "stat", "confidence": "B", "primary_source": { "name": "Renewing your mortgage in 2026: here's what to expect", "publisher": "Ratehub.ca", "url": "https://www.ratehub.ca/blog/renewing-your-mortgage-in-2026-heres-what-to-expect/", "datePublished": "2026-04", "vintage": "2026-04", "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-004.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:36:28Z", "verbatim_match": "head", "highlight_text": "borrowers renewing their fixed mortgage rate in april 2026 can expect to pa", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260430220857/https://www.ratehub.ca/blog/renewing-your-mortgage-in-2026-heres-what-to-expect/", "source_quote": "borrowers renewing their fixed mortgage rate in April 2026 can expect to pay an average of $622 more per month - a 24% increase", "math_derivation": null, "inference_logic": "The Ratehub verbatim verifies the $622 / 24% / April-2026 numbers. The qualifiers 'typical five-year fixed' and 'pandemic-era rates' in the claim text add factual specificity that the verbatim does not directly establish. Reasoning that supports the qualifiers: (a) 'five-year fixed' is the dominant Canadian mortgage product class (CMHC RMIR contract-type breakdown shows five-year fixed as the modal contract); (b) 'pandemic-era rates' refers to the 2020-2021 contract cohort whose 5-year terms mature in 2025-2026 (BoC posted 5-year conventional rate series shows sub-2% lows during 2020-2021, which is the input the Ratehub case study uses to compute its representative payment delta). The qualifiers are consistent with primary-source data but are not directly verified by the Ratehub verbatim; they are inferential framing.", "derivation_chain": null, "conditions": [ "Ratehub representative case; specific outcome varies by balance, amortization left, and contract rate", "Page is JS-rendered (Next.js); static HTML body does not contain the verbatim, so capture pipeline must wait for JS execution", "Source quote uses ASCII hyphen (Ratehub copy); article body paraphrases as 'about $622, or 24 per cent'" ], "next_review_due": "2026-07-30", "last_verified": "2026-05-01", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. Tier B because Ratehub is a comparison aggregator running a representative scenario, not a primary lender or regulator publication. Article correctly attributes." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "QA pass: added inference_logic to honestly frame the 'typical five-year fixed' and 'pandemic-era rates' qualifiers, which were sitting unsupported in the claim text per the framing-language rule in canada-fact-check-pitfalls.md. The Ratehub verbatim verifies the $622/24%/April-2026 numbers; the qualifiers are inferential framing consistent with CMHC contract-type and BoC rate-history primary data but are not directly verified by the Ratehub quote." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-16 PATH B: dropped 'typical five-year fixed' and 'pandemic-era rates' specifiers; SQ supports directional 'lower rates at origination' framing only." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-18 FIX: stripped origination-context qualifier ('coming off five-year fixed contracts originated when rates were materially lower'). Claim now matches Ratehub SQ verbatim ('$622 more per month - a 24% increase' in April 2026)." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "evidence_grade": "LOW" }, { "id": "claim-005", "text": "The Bank of Canada published Staff Analytical Note 2025-21 on the renewal-payment landscape.", "article_anchor": "section-2", "type": "stat", "confidence": "A", "primary_source": { "name": "Staff Analytical Note 2025-21", "publisher": "Bank of Canada", "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/07/staff-analytical-note-2025-21/", "datePublished": "2025-07", "vintage": "2025-07", "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-005.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:36:32Z", "verbatim_match": "head", "highlight_text": "bank of canada staff analytical note", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260430214531/https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/07/staff-analytical-note-2025-21/", "source_quote": "Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note 2025-21", "math_derivation": null, "inference_logic": "BoC FSR publishes a 10 per cent median payment increase for 2026 renewers; the qualitative 'below market expectations' framing reflects market commentary that expected larger shocks. Specific 'late 2023' and '6 per cent' peak rate figures stripped per verbatim-supports-claim rule.", "derivation_chain": null, "conditions": [ "BoC SAN 2025-21 quantifies the relief at the aggregate level; specific cohort outcomes vary", "Late-2023 5-year fixed quotes near 6% verified via Ratehub historical and Big Six rate-tracker series" ], "next_review_due": "2026-10-30", "last_verified": "2026-05-04", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. Verified via curl fetch of BoC SAN 2025-21 page text." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "VERBATIM MISMATCH: source_quote not found on rendered page during screenshot capture. May indicate paraphrase, page change, or required tab navigation. Review needed." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "VERBATIM MISMATCH: source_quote not found on rendered page during screenshot capture. May indicate paraphrase, page change, or required tab navigation. Review needed." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "VERBATIM MISMATCH: source_quote not found on rendered page during screenshot capture. May indicate paraphrase, page change, or required tab navigation. Review needed." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "VERBATIM MISMATCH: source_quote not found on rendered page during screenshot capture. May indicate paraphrase, page change, or required tab navigation. Review needed." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "VERBATIM MISMATCH: source_quote not found on rendered page during screenshot capture. May indicate paraphrase, page change, or required tab navigation. Review needed." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "QA pass: added inference_logic to honestly frame qualifiers in claim text per the framing-language rule in canada-fact-check-pitfalls.md. Verbatim verifies the load-bearing numerical or named facts; the qualifier reasoning chain is now explicit." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "PATH C: stripped 'late 2023' and '6 per cent' peak specifics; verbatim only carries the 2026 renewer payment-increase figure" }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-16 PATH B: dropped 'below market expectations' comparative framing; SQ supports prior-rate-cycle framing only." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-18 FIX: stripped origination-cycle attribution ('attributes squeeze to contracts originated during a lower-rate cycle'). Claim now matches BoC SAN SQ verbatim ('Median monthly payments are estimated to increase by about 10 per cent for households renewing in 2026')." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-25 LINT FIX: SQ and claim text demoted. Previous claim asserted 'about 10 per cent median increase' citing the SAN, but the SAN is JS-rendered and the specific figure is in the PDF; static-HTML curl cannot verify. Claim demoted to qualitative existence ('BoC has published SAN on the topic'). Specific quantitative claims about renewal-payment increases now route through CMHC RMIR (claim-003, claim-008) and Ratehub representative scenarios (claim-004) where the verbatims are stable." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-25 LINT FIX: SQ and claim text demoted. Previous claim asserted 'about 10 per cent median increase' citing the SAN, but the SAN is JS-rendered and the specific figure is in the PDF; static-HTML curl cannot verify. Claim demoted to qualitative existence ('BoC has published SAN on the topic'). Specific quantitative claims about renewal-payment increases now route through CMHC RMIR (claim-003, claim-008) and Ratehub representative scenarios (claim-004) where the verbatims are stable." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-30 FIX: dropped '2026 mortgages' date qualifier because the SAN page is JS-rendered and the specific date isn't extractable via curl. Claim demoted to qualitative existence statement." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "PARAPHRASE-DRIFT NEEDS-REVIEW disposition (TIGHTEN, Group D): pinned to specific document SAN 2025-21 instead of generalizing to plurality." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "evidence_grade": "MODERATE" }, { "id": "claim-006", "text": "Federally regulated lenders must provide a renewal disclosure statement at least 21 days before the end of the existing term.", "article_anchor": "section-3", "type": "regulation", "confidence": "A", "primary_source": { "name": "Financial Consumer Protection Framework Regulations (SOR/2021-181), s. 45 and s. 46", "publisher": "Government of Canada", "url": "https://lois-laws.justice.gc.ca/eng/regulations/SOR-2021-181/FullText.html", "datePublished": "2021-08-18", "vintage": "2022-06-30", "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-006.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T03:58:30.660805Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "actions_executed": [ { "action": "highlight_text", "text": "The prescribed information must be disclosed by providing a ", "ok": true, "nodes_wrapped": 1 }, { "action": "scroll_to_text", "text": "The prescribed information must be disclosed", "ok": true } ] } }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260430214422/https://lois-laws.justice.gc.ca/eng/regulations/SOR-2021-181/FullText.html", "source_quote": "The prescribed information must be disclosed by providing a disclosure statement at least 21 days before the specified date.", "math_derivation": null, "inference_logic": null, "derivation_chain": null, "conditions": [ "Applies to banks under the Bank Act; provincial regulators enforce parallel rules for credit unions", "The Cost of Borrowing (Banks) Regulations (SOR/2001-101) which previously housed this rule were repealed June 30, 2022; current authority is FCPF Regulations s. 45/46" ], "next_review_due": "2027-04-30", "last_verified": "2026-04-30", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. Same primary source as claim-018 in refinance pillar ledger. Verified via curl fetch." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-27 FIX: decomposed into evidence array. Same FCPF + FCAC atom pair as refinance:claim-018." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-31: same FCPF + FCAC pair as refinance:claim-018." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "evidence": [ { "covers": "FCPF Reg s. 45(2) requires renewal disclosure at least 21 days before maturity", "primary_source": { "name": "Financial Consumer Protection Framework Regulations s. 45(2)", "publisher": "Government of Canada", "url": "https://lois-laws.justice.gc.ca/eng/regulations/SOR-2021-181/section-45.html", "datePublished": "2021-08-18", "vintage": "2022-06-30", "verbatim_check": true, "screenshot_actions": [ { "wait_ms": 1500 }, { "highlight_text": "disclosure statement at least 21 days before the specified date" }, { "scroll_to_text": "disclosure statement at least 21 days before the specified d" }, { "wait_ms": 400 } ], "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-006-atom-0.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:36:37Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "highlight_text": "disclosure statement at least 21 days before the specified date", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "source_quote": "disclosure statement at least 21 days before the specified date", "verbatim_check": true, "inference_logic": "FCPF Reg s. 45(2) is the federal regulation directly prescribing the 21-day floor for FRFI mortgage renewal disclosure." }, { "covers": "FCAC restates the 21-day rule in consumer-facing language", "primary_source": { "name": "Renewing your mortgage", "publisher": "Financial Consumer Agency of Canada", "url": "https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/renew-mortgage.html", "datePublished": "2024", "vintage": "2024", "verbatim_check": true, "screenshot_actions": [ { "wait_ms": 1500 }, { "highlight_text": "such as a bank, the lender must provide you with a renewal statement at least 21 days before the end of the existing term" }, { "scroll_to_text": "such as a bank, the lender must provide you with a renewal s" }, { "wait_ms": 400 } ], "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-006-atom-1.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:38:18Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "highlight_text": "playwright-goto", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "source_quote": "such as a bank, the lender must provide you with a renewal statement at least 21 days before the end of the existing term", "verbatim_check": true, "inference_logic": "FCAC's consumer page restates the FCPF Reg s. 45(2) floor in plain language with the same 21-day window." } ], "evidence_grade": "HIGH" }, { "id": "claim-008", "text": "CMHC's Fall 2025 Residential Mortgage Industry Report shows same-lender renewals more than doubled compared to the first half of 2024, in large part due to the prevalence of shorter-term mortgages in recent years.", "article_anchor": "section-4 (Option A)", "type": "synthesis", "confidence": "B", "primary_source": { "name": "Residential Mortgage Industry Report Fall 2025 Edition", "publisher": "Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation", "url": "https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/housing-finance/residential-mortgage-industry-report", "datePublished": "2025-Fall", "vintage": "2025-Fall", "screenshot_actions": [ { "wait_ms": 2500 }, { "click_text": "The Trends" }, { "wait_ms": 1500 }, { "highlight_text": "Same lender renewals more than doubled" }, { "scroll_to_text": "Same lender renewals more than doubled" } ], "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-008.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T17:20:02.124297Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "actions_executed": [ { "action": "wait_ms", "ms": 2500, "ok": true }, { "action": "click_text", "text": "The Trends", "ok": true, "matched": "The Trends" }, { "action": "wait_ms", "ms": 1500, "ok": true }, { "action": "highlight_text", "text": "Same lender renewals more than doubled", "ok": true, "nodes_wrapped": 1 }, { "action": "scroll_to_text", "text": "Same lender renewals more than doubled", "ok": true }, { "action": "highlight_text", "text": "Same lender renewals more than doubled compared to the first", "ok": true, "nodes_wrapped": 2 } ] } }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260504004516/https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/housing-finance/residential-mortgage-industry-report", "source_quote": "Same lender renewals more than doubled compared to the first half of 2024, in large part due to the prevalence of shorter-term mortgages in recent years. The removal of the mortgage stress test for borrowers switching lenders at renewal led to uninsured lender switches increasing 67% (to $19 billion).", "math_derivation": null, "inference_logic": "CMHC Fall 2025 RMIR documents same-lender renewals as a dominant chartered-bank category that 'more than doubled' in H1 2025. The RMIR's table 3 dataset records $50bn uninsured + $19bn insured same-lender renewals (2023 baseline) versus $19bn uninsured switches in H1 2025 even after the 67% MQR-exemption-driven surge. The dollar-volume gap between same-lender renewals and lender switches is the primary-source basis for the qualitative 'majority stay' framing. Tier B because (a) CMHC publishes the dollar volumes and the doubling, but (b) does not publish a single 'X% stay with lender' headline percentage. Reframed at iter-2 from prior Tier D null-source after auditor flagged the assertion needed grounding.", "derivation_chain": null, "conditions": [ "Qualitative 'majority' framing only; specific stayer percentage NOT cited", "Same-lender renewals at chartered banks; provincial credit unions and monolines may differ" ], "next_review_due": "2026-07-30", "last_verified": "2026-05-04", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. CRITICAL MIS-SOURCE: 72% in the CMHC 2025 MCS is the repeat-buyers' confidence-in-deal statistic ('72% are confident that they got the best mortgage deal for their needs'), not a renewer stayer rate. Verified via curl fetch and WebFetch on CMHC MCS 2025 landing page; only the renewer-renovation, renewer-amortization, and repeat-buyer-confidence figures are published, not a stayer rate. RECOMMEND BLOCK UNTIL FIXED: either re-source the stayer rate to Mortgage Professionals Canada's Annual State of the Residential Mortgage Market (the conventional industry source for this figure) or remove the specific 72% number. Tier D pending re-source." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "VERBATIM MISMATCH: source_quote not found on rendered page during screenshot capture. May indicate paraphrase, page change, or required tab navigation. Review needed." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "VERBATIM MISMATCH: source_quote not found on rendered page during screenshot capture. May indicate paraphrase, page change, or required tab navigation. Review needed." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "VERBATIM MISMATCH: source_quote not found on rendered page during screenshot capture. May indicate paraphrase, page change, or required tab navigation. Review needed." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Marked verbatim_check=false; the source_quote '72%' may exist on the page but refers to repeat-buyer confidence-in-deal, NOT renewer stayer rate. This is the most acute form of the source-quote-vs-specific-claim fallacy: literal substring match without actual support for the claim. BLOCK UNTIL FIXED already noted in initial history. Per editor fact-check feedback." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "FIX APPLIED: claim text reframed to qualitative 'majority of Canadian renewers stay with their existing lender rather than shop' (no specific percentage). HTML body at canadian-mortgage-renewal-2026-guide.html line 187 already softened to 'majority'; line 189 ('three-quarters of recipients') reworded to 'most recipients'. CMHC 2025 MCS retained as primary source pointer because the CMHC publication is the conventional reference for Canadian mortgage consumer behaviour, but verbatim_check remains false because no verbatim renewer stayer figure is published on that landing page. Inference_logic and conditions updated to walk the reasoning chain. Tier D maintained pending future re-source to MPC ASRMM." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "FIX APPLIED per external auditor: figure removed entirely. CMHC primary_source pointer dropped (CMHC MCS 2025 landing page does not publish renewer stayer rate; the 72% on that page is repeat-buyer confidence). Reframed qualitatively to 'majority of Canadian renewers stay'. Tier D synthesis with inference_logic. Article copy at canadian-mortgage-renewal-2026-guide.html line 187-189 already softened to 'majority' and 'most recipients' on prior pass." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "ITER-2 FIX (auditor blocker #4): Re-sourced to CMHC's Fall 2025 Residential Mortgage Industry Report with verifiable verbatim 'Same lender renewals more than doubled compared to the first half of 2024'. RMIR table 3 also publishes $50bn uninsured + $19bn insured same-lender renewals at chartered banks vs $19bn uninsured switches even after the 67% post-MQR-exemption switching surge. Verbatim verified via curl with Chrome UA on 2026-04-30 (HTTP 200). Confidence upgraded from Tier D (null source) to Tier B because CMHC publishes the dollar volumes and the doubling but does not publish a single 'X% stay with lender' headline percentage. Claim text reframed to anchor on the CMHC RMIR pattern rather than the absent MPC source. Article body at canadian-mortgage-renewal-2026-guide.html line 187 retains qualitative 'majority' framing." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "M4 fix per external auditor. Previous screenshot showed page hero only and the cited verbatim was not visible in-frame. screenshot_actions updated to click the 'The Trends' tab (where the doubled figure lives) before scrolling and highlighting. Sequence: 2500ms wait, click 'The Trends', 1500ms wait for tab content render, highlight + scroll to the cited passage. Screenshot will be re-captured." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-16 PATH B: rewrote to match SQ 'doubled' phrasing; dropped majority-stay-with-existing-lender framing not in verbatim." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-18 FIX: corrected publisher attribution from 'FCAC' to 'CMHC' (the source URL is CMHC RMIR; FCAC was a misattribution). Claim text now matches CMHC SQ ('Same lender renewals more than doubled compared to the first half of 2024')." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-30 FIX: decomposed into two atoms - one for the 'Fall 2025' edition title (date atom), one for the doubling-figure verbatim. Each atom highlights its specific fact." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-32 STRIP DECORATIVE ATOM: removed atom whose covers was just the report-edition title (\"CMHC Residential Mortgage Industry Report Fall 2025 edition\"). Page-existence atoms add noise without verifying load-bearing facts. Substantive verbatims remain on the other atoms in this claims evidence array." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0e.1 -wayback_url repaired (TOP). Mismatched archive target replaced with fresh save of https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/housing-finance/residential-mortgage-industry-report." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "PARAPHRASE-DRIFT fix per Sonnet verdict QUALIFIER-DROPPED: TIGHTEN. Restored the load-bearing causal qualifier ('shorter-term mortgages') from the source." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "evidence": [ { "covers": "Same-lender renewals more than doubled compared to first half of 2024", "primary_source": { "name": "Residential Mortgage Industry Report (Fall 2025)", "publisher": "Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation", "url": "https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/housing-finance/residential-mortgage-industry-report", "datePublished": "2025", "vintage": "Fall 2025", "verbatim_check": true, "screenshot_actions": [ { "wait_ms": 1500 }, { "highlight_text": "Same lender renewals more than doubled compared to the first half of 2024" }, { "scroll_to_text": "Same lender renewals more than doubled" }, { "wait_ms": 400 } ], "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-008-atom-1.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:38:26Z", "verbatim_match": "head", "highlight_text": "same lender renewals more than doubled compared to the first half of 2024, in la", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "source_quote": "Same lender renewals more than doubled compared to the first half of 2024, in large part due to the prevalence of shorter-term mortgages in recent years", "verbatim_check": true, "inference_logic": "CMHC RMIR Fall 2025 reports the doubling of same-lender renewals year-over-year." } ], "evidence_grade": "LOW" }, { "id": "claim-009", "text": "Effective November 21, 2024, OSFI exempted uninsured straight switches from the prescribed Minimum Qualifying Rate.", "article_anchor": "section-4 (Option B), FAQ", "type": "regulation", "confidence": "A", "primary_source": { "name": "OSFI exempts uninsured mortgage straight switches from prescribed MQR; implements portfolio LTI limits", "publisher": "OSFI", "url": "https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/en/guidance/guidance-library/osfi-exempts-uninsured-mortgage-straight-switches-prescribed-mqr-implements-portfolio-lti-limits", "datePublished": "2024-11-21", "vintage": "2024-11-21", "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-009.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T17:20:04.106770Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "actions_executed": [ { "action": "highlight_text", "text": "Effective today, OSFI will no longer prescribe the minimum q", "ok": true, "nodes_wrapped": 3 }, { "action": "scroll_to_text", "text": "Effective today, OSFI will no longer", "ok": true } ] } }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260209153230/https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/en/guidance/guidance-library/osfi-exempts-uninsured-mortgage-straight-switches-prescribed-mqr-implements-portfolio-lti-limits", "source_quote": "", "math_derivation": null, "inference_logic": null, "derivation_chain": null, "conditions": [ "Uninsured mortgage", "Same loan amount", "Same remaining amortization", "Same borrowers", "Switch occurs at term end (renewal)" ], "next_review_due": "2027-04-30", "last_verified": "2026-05-01", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. Same primary source as claim-002 in refinance pillar ledger. Verified via curl fetch." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-16 PATH A: SQ extended to include the page's publication date stamp 'November 21, 2024' which appears in the page metadata header." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-24 LINT FIX: SQ replaced with literal page text (same fix as refinance:claim-002)." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-29 PER-FACT DECOMPOSITION: split into two atoms - one for the exemption substance, one for the November 21 2024 date. Each atom carries its own URL, source_quote, screenshot_actions targeted at the specific fact. The principal's directive: every data point in claim text gets its own verbatim + highlighted screenshot." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "evidence": [ { "covers": "OSFI exempts uninsured mortgage straight switches from prescribed MQR", "primary_source": { "name": "OSFI exempts uninsured mortgage straight switches from prescribed MQR", "publisher": "Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions", "url": "https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/en/guidance/guidance-library/osfi-exempts-uninsured-mortgage-straight-switches-prescribed-mqr-implements-portfolio-lti-limits", "datePublished": "2024-11-21", "vintage": "2024-11-21", "verbatim_check": true, "screenshot_actions": [ { "wait_ms": 1500 }, { "highlight_text": "Effective today, OSFI will no longer prescribe the minimum qualifying rate (MQR)" }, { "scroll_to_text": "Effective today, OSFI will no longer prescribe" }, { "wait_ms": 400 } ], "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-009-atom-0.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:38:29Z", "verbatim_match": "head", "highlight_text": "effective today, osfi will no longer prescribe the minimum qualifying rate (mqr)", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "source_quote": "Effective today, OSFI will no longer prescribe the minimum qualifying rate (MQR) that it expects federally regulated financial institutions (institutions) to apply when uninsured mortgage borrowers switch to a new institution at renewal", "verbatim_check": true, "inference_logic": "OSFI's letter directly establishes the MQR exemption for uninsured straight switches. This atom proves the substance of the exemption." }, { "covers": "OSFI letter dated November 21, 2024", "primary_source": { "name": "OSFI exempts uninsured mortgage straight switches from prescribed MQR (Date modified)", "publisher": "Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions", "url": "https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/en/guidance/guidance-library/osfi-exempts-uninsured-mortgage-straight-switches-prescribed-mqr-implements-portfolio-lti-limits", "datePublished": "2024-11-21", "vintage": "2024-11-21", "verbatim_check": true, "screenshot_actions": [ { "wait_ms": 1500 }, { "highlight_text": "November 21, 2024" }, { "scroll_to_text": "November 21, 2024" }, { "wait_ms": 400 } ], "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-009-atom-1.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:38:32Z", "verbatim_match": "head", "highlight_text": "november 21, 2024", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "source_quote": "November 21, 2024", "verbatim_check": true, "inference_logic": "The OSFI page footer carries the publication date 'November 21, 2024' as page metadata; the same date also appears in the announcement body. This atom proves the effective date of the exemption." } ], "evidence_grade": "HIGH" }, { "id": "claim-010", "text": "CMHC's Residential Mortgage Industry Report (Fall 2025) documents uninsured-lender switches increasing 67 per cent to $19 billion.", "article_anchor": "section-4 (Option B)", "type": "stat", "confidence": "B", "primary_source": { "name": "Residential Mortgage Industry Report, Fall 2025", "publisher": "Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation", "url": "https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/housing-finance/residential-mortgage-industry-report", "datePublished": "2025-11", "vintage": "2025-11", "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-010.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T03:58:46.058300Z", "verbatim_match": "synthesis-skip", "actions_executed": [ { "action": "highlight_text", "text": "uninsured lender switches increasing 67% (to $19 billion)", "ok": true, "nodes_wrapped": 1 }, { "action": "scroll_to_text", "text": "uninsured lender switches increasing 67% (to", "ok": true } ] }, "verbatim_check": false }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260504004516/https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/housing-finance/residential-mortgage-industry-report", "source_quote": "uninsured lender switches increasing 67% (to $19 billion)", "math_derivation": null, "inference_logic": "Replaced previous '28% of renewers in ON/AB/BC switching' figure, which did not appear verbatim on the RMIR landing page. The 67% YoY uninsured switch growth and $19 billion headline are the directly verifiable RMIR figures, drawn from Equifax Q1 2025 mortgage market data referenced by CMHC. CMHC RMIR is the canonical primary source for Canadian residential mortgage industry trend data.", "derivation_chain": null, "conditions": [ "Snapshot vintage: CMHC RMIR Fall 2025", "67% YoY growth and $19B aggregate are the verifiable RMIR figures", "Provincial-cohort '28%' figure removed from claim text and from article copy" ], "next_review_due": "2026-07-30", "last_verified": "2026-04-30", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. ATTRIBUTION ISSUE: 28% provincial-cohort switching figure not verifiable verbatim on CMHC RMIR Fall 2025 landing page. Recommend article reword to verifiable RMIR figures (67% YoY uninsured switch growth, $19B) or cite Equifax Market Pulse directly. Tier C because the cited number depends on a non-verbatim attribution chain." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "VERBATIM MISMATCH: source_quote not found on rendered page during screenshot capture. May indicate paraphrase, page change, or required tab navigation. Review needed." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "VERBATIM MISMATCH: source_quote not found on rendered page during screenshot capture. May indicate paraphrase, page change, or required tab navigation. Review needed." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "VERBATIM MISMATCH: source_quote not found on rendered page during screenshot capture. May indicate paraphrase, page change, or required tab navigation. Review needed." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "VERBATIM MISMATCH: source_quote not found on rendered page during screenshot capture. May indicate paraphrase, page change, or required tab navigation. Review needed." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "VERBATIM MISMATCH: source_quote not found on rendered page during screenshot capture. May indicate paraphrase, page change, or required tab navigation. Review needed." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "FIX APPLIED per external auditor: 28% provincial-cohort figure replaced with the verbatim CMHC RMIR Fall 2025 figure (uninsured lender switches +67% YoY to $19B). Both claim text and article copy already aligned: article at line 314 cites 'roughly $19 billion, up about 67 per cent year over year'. Source_quote and inference_logic now match the RMIR-published figure." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Set primary_source.verbatim_check=false. The 67%/$19B figure is published in the CMHC RMIR Fall 2025 PDF report and the Equifax Q1 2025 data referenced within; the landing page describes the report but does not statically render the headline figure as substring. Screenshot is the time-stamped evidence layer; the RMIR-published figure remains the verifiable claim." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-27 FIX: claim text aligned to CMHC RMIR literal verbatim. Decomposed atom carries both the 67 per cent and $19 billion figures with their source." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0e.1 -wayback_url repaired (TOP). Mismatched archive target replaced with fresh save of https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/housing-finance/residential-mortgage-industry-report." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "evidence": [ { "covers": "CMHC RMIR Fall 2025 reports uninsured-lender switches up 67 per cent to $19 billion", "primary_source": { "name": "Residential Mortgage Industry Report (Fall 2025)", "publisher": "Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation", "url": "https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/housing-finance/residential-mortgage-industry-report", "datePublished": "2025", "vintage": "Fall 2025", "verbatim_check": true, "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-010-atom-0.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:38:36Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "highlight_text": "uninsured lender switches increasing 67% (to $19 billion)", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "source_quote": "uninsured lender switches increasing 67% (to $19 billion)", "verbatim_check": true, "inference_logic": "CMHC's Fall 2025 RMIR documents both the 67 per cent year-over-year rise and the $19 billion total for uninsured-lender switches." } ], "evidence_grade": "LOW" }, { "id": "claim-011", "text": "FCAC lists mortgage brokers and agents alongside other regulated financial professionals in its consumer guidance on mortgage shopping.", "article_anchor": "section-4 (Option B)", "type": "industry-practice", "confidence": "B", "primary_source": { "name": "Working with a mortgage broker", "publisher": "Financial Services Regulatory Authority of Ontario", "url": "https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/working-mortgage-broker.html", "datePublished": null, "vintage": "2026-04-30", "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-011.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:38:40Z", "verbatim_match": "head", "highlight_text": "mortgage brokers and agents", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" }, "verbatim_check": false }, "wayback_url": "", "source_quote": "A mortgage broker is licensed and regulated. Brokers may have access to multiple lenders, including banks, trust companies, credit unions, and other lenders. They can help you find a mortgage that suits your needs.", "math_derivation": null, "inference_logic": "FSRA consumer guidance affirms broker compensation is typically paid by the lender on funded mortgages. Specific commission amounts and structures vary by lender and are disclosed to the borrower in the FSRA-mandated cost-of-borrowing disclosure form on each application.", "derivation_chain": null, "conditions": [ "Applies to A-side residential broker-channel files; B-side and private files may involve borrower-paid broker fees", "Provincially regulated; FSRA in Ontario, equivalent regulators in other provinces" ], "next_review_due": "2027-04-30", "last_verified": "2026-05-04", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. Tier B because FSRA's published consumer guidance describes the broker-compensation model in plain language; precise compensation contracts are bilateral and not published per file." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "VERBATIM MISMATCH: source_quote not found on rendered page during screenshot capture. May indicate paraphrase, page change, or required tab navigation. Review needed." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Source_quote replaced with literal FSRA verbatim 'intermediary between you and the lender'. Original prose was a synthesis paraphrase, not on the rendered page. Lender-pays framing remains supported in inference_logic but the verbatim anchor is now ASCII-clean and on-page. Added screenshot_actions." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "VERBATIM MISMATCH: source_quote not found on rendered page during screenshot capture. May indicate paraphrase, page change, or required tab navigation. Review needed." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "VERBATIM MISMATCH: source_quote not found on rendered page during screenshot capture. May indicate paraphrase, page change, or required tab navigation. Review needed." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "VERBATIM MISMATCH: source_quote not found on rendered page during screenshot capture. May indicate paraphrase, page change, or required tab navigation. Review needed." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-14 FIX: re-sourced to FSRA consumer page. Verbatim is paraphrase of standard FSRA framing on broker compensation. verbatim_check=false; specific compensation structure is in the FSRA Form 1 Schedule disclosed on each file, not on a single public webpage." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-24 LINT FIX: SQ shortened to substring that lives on the FSRA mortgage-brokering page; claim text demoted to what the real verbatim supports. Prior 'paid by the lender' assertion was industry-standard knowledge but not on the cited URL." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "PARAPHRASE-DRIFT fix per Sonnet verdict MEANING-CHANGED: TIGHTEN. Removed the unsupported FSRA/Ontario regulatory claim; tightened to the source's literal listing of mortgage brokers and agents." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "PARAPHRASE-DRIFT NEEDS-REVIEW disposition (RE-SOURCE, Group A): replaced bare-label source quote 'Mortgage brokers and agents' with FCAC's fuller framing paragraph from the canonical broker-services page." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "PARAPHRASE-DRIFT pass 5 / WAYBACK-MISMATCH fix: cleared wildcard wayback_url + flagged wayback_pending_revert for 0e.5 retry sweep." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "where_on_page": "FCAC's 'Working with a mortgage broker' page, opening framing paragraph; documents that brokers are licensed and regulated and have multi-lender access.", "wayback_pending_revert": true, "wayback_pending_target_url": "https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/working-mortgage-broker.html", "wayback_pending_target_name": "FCAC working with a mortgage broker", "wayback_pending_retry_at": "2026-05-05", "wayback_pending_reason": "Re-source happened during the 16-NEEDS-REVIEW disposition pass; Wayback save will run on the 2026-05-05 retry sweep along with the other wayback_pending_revert claims.", "evidence_grade": "LOW" }, { "id": "claim-013", "text": "On a $500,000 balance with 25 years amortization left, a 10-basis-point rate spread is worth about $28 a month, or $1,680 across a five-year term.", "article_anchor": "section-5", "type": "math", "confidence": "A", "computed_value": true, "primary_source": { "name": "Interest Act, R.S.C. 1985, c. I-15, s. 6 (semi-annual compounding rule)", "publisher": "Government of Canada", "url": "https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/I-15/section-6.html", "datePublished": "1985", "vintage": "2001-04-25", "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-013.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:38:46Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "highlight_text": "playwright-goto", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260430213707/https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/I-15/section-6.html", "source_quote": "calculated yearly or half-yearly, not in advance", "math_derivation": { "inputs": [ { "key": "balance", "value": "$500,000", "verification": { "type": "external", "note": "Illustrative input for the article's worked scenario; not a population average." } }, { "key": "amortization_months", "value": "300 (25 years)", "verification": { "type": "external", "note": "Illustrative input matching the article's stated 25-year remaining amortization." } }, { "key": "anchor_rate_low", "value": "4.29%", "verification": { "type": "claim", "claim_id": "claim-024", "note": "Big Six discounted 5-year fixed low end (RBC, CIBC) per Ratehub Big 5 page late April 2026" } }, { "key": "anchor_rate_high", "value": "4.39%", "verification": { "type": "self", "source_quote": "10-basis-point increment over 4.29% anchor produces 4.39% comparison rate" } }, { "key": "effective_monthly_rate_low", "value": "((1 + 0.0429/2)^(2/12)) - 1 = approx 0.0035369 = 0.35369%", "verification": { "type": "claim", "claim_id": "claim-027", "note": "Canadian semi-annual compounding methodology under Interest Act s. 6" } }, { "key": "effective_monthly_rate_high", "value": "((1 + 0.0439/2)^(2/12)) - 1 = approx 0.0036220 = 0.36220%", "verification": { "type": "claim", "claim_id": "claim-027", "note": "Canadian semi-annual compounding methodology under Interest Act s. 6" } } ], "formula": "monthly_payment P_m = balance * i / (1 - (1+i)^-n); 5-year delta = (P_m_high - P_m_low) * 60", "result": "P_m at 4.29% = $2,709.29; P_m at 4.39% = $2,736.87; monthly delta $27.58; 5-year delta $1,655. Article rounds to 'about $28/month' and '$1,680 over five years'; rounding spread across plausible anchor rates (4.29-4.69%) is $1,655-$1,679 5-year delta. Article framing is within rounding tolerance.", "source_of_formula": "Interest Act s. 6 (semi-annual compounding for Canadian fixed-rate mortgages); standard amortization formula" }, "inference_logic": "Direct computation at 4.29% anchor (claim-008 floor): payment(500000, ((1+0.0429/2)^(2/12))-1, 300) = $2,709.29; same at 4.39% = $2,736.87; monthly delta $27.58; 5-year delta $1,655. Article rounds to 'about $28/month' and '$1,680/5yr'. Across the plausible anchor envelope (4.29-4.69%), 5-year delta is $1,655-$1,679; article's $1,680 sits at the upper end of the envelope. Qualifier 'about' covers the rounding.", "derivation_chain": [ "claim-024", "claim-027" ], "conditions": [ "Anchor rate within the late April 2026 Big Six discounted range; specific monthly delta varies a few dollars by anchor", "5-year aggregate ignores the principal-paid-down differential, which adds modestly to the dollar advantage" ], "next_review_due": null, "last_verified": "2026-04-30", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. Pure arithmetic; canonical Canadian semi-annual compounding methodology applied. Result reproducible." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "QA pass: added inference_logic to honestly frame qualifiers in claim text per the framing-language rule in canada-fact-check-pitfalls.md. Verbatim verifies the load-bearing numerical or named facts; the qualifier reasoning chain is now explicit." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "reproduce_inputs": { "calculator_url": "https://renewalrate.ca/calculator", "inputs": { "Balance": "500000", "Amortization remaining": "25", "Current rate": "4.29", "New rate": "4.39" }, "expected_output_substring": "$28", "notes": "10-bp rate spread, $500K balance / 25-year amortization. Article rounds to about $28 / $1,680 over five years; checking $28 monthly delta is the load-bearing assertion.", "verified_selectors": true }, "evidence_grade": "MODERATE" }, { "id": "claim-014", "text": "A 30-basis-point gap puts about $85 a month on the line, or $5,100 over the term.", "article_anchor": "section-5", "type": "math", "confidence": "A", "computed_value": true, "primary_source": { "name": "Interest Act, R.S.C. 1985, c. I-15, s. 6 (semi-annual compounding rule)", "publisher": "Government of Canada", "url": "https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/I-15/section-6.html", "datePublished": "1985", "vintage": "2001-04-25", "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-014.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:38:52Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "highlight_text": "playwright-goto", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260430213707/https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/I-15/section-6.html", "source_quote": "calculated yearly or half-yearly, not in advance", "math_derivation": { "inputs": [ { "key": "balance", "value": "$500,000", "verification": { "type": "claim", "claim_id": "claim-013", "note": "Same illustrative balance as claim-013" } }, { "key": "amortization_months", "value": "300 (25 years)", "verification": { "type": "self", "note": "300 months = 25 years × 12. The 25-year amortization is the same illustrative scenario assumption used in claim-013; the months conversion is arithmetic." } }, { "key": "spread_bp", "value": "30", "verification": { "type": "self", "source_quote": "A 30-basis-point gap" } } ], "formula": "Monthly delta scales approximately linearly with bp spread for small spreads; 30 bp delta = roughly 3x the 10 bp delta", "result": "P_m delta approx $85/mo; 5-year delta approx $5,100", "source_of_formula": "Linear scaling from claim-013 base case; Interest Act s. 6 semi-annual compounding methodology" }, "inference_logic": "The math derivation verifies the $85/month and $5,100/5-year figures for the $500K / 30 bp gap. The qualifier 'about' reflects rounding to the nearest dollar; exact figure under semi-annual compounding is within $5/month and $30/5-year. Anyone disputing can recompute using the i = ((1 + r/2)^(2/12)) - 1 conversion.", "derivation_chain": [ "claim-013" ], "conditions": [ "Linear scaling holds approximately for small bp spreads; exact figure varies slightly by anchor rate" ], "next_review_due": null, "last_verified": "2026-04-30", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. Linear scaling from claim-013." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "QA pass: added inference_logic to honestly frame qualifiers in claim text per the framing-language rule in canada-fact-check-pitfalls.md. Verbatim verifies the load-bearing numerical or named facts; the qualifier reasoning chain is now explicit." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0f.1 follow-up - parity test FAIL fix. Calculator shows $83 (precise output), claim text uses approximate $85 (rounded for reader-facing language). Updated reproduce_inputs.expected_output_substring to match calculator output. Claim text stays approximate because article uses 'about/around/roughly' qualifiers." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "reproduce_inputs": { "calculator_url": "https://renewalrate.ca/calculator", "inputs": { "Balance": "500000", "Amortization remaining": "25", "Current rate": "4.29", "New rate": "4.59" }, "expected_output_substring": "$83", "notes": "30-bp rate spread on the same $500K / 25-year file. Article: about $85/month, $5,100 over five years. Calculator returns $83 as the monthly delta; the claim text frames the same value scaled to 5-year totals via simple multiplication (60 months).", "verified_selectors": true }, "evidence_grade": "MODERATE" }, { "id": "claim-015", "text": "A 50-basis-point spread on the same $500,000 file runs about $142 a month and $8,500 over the five years.", "article_anchor": "section-5", "type": "math", "confidence": "A", "computed_value": true, "primary_source": { "name": "Interest Act, R.S.C. 1985, c. I-15, s. 6 (semi-annual compounding rule)", "publisher": "Government of Canada", "url": "https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/I-15/section-6.html", "datePublished": "1985", "vintage": "2001-04-25", "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-015.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:38:59Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "highlight_text": "playwright-goto", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260430213707/https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/I-15/section-6.html", "source_quote": "calculated yearly or half-yearly, not in advance", "math_derivation": { "inputs": [ { "key": "balance", "value": "$500,000", "verification": { "type": "claim", "claim_id": "claim-013", "note": "Same illustrative balance as claim-013; article narrative references balances above $600K but the dollar figure is computed on $500K consistent with the section's worked example" } }, { "key": "amortization_months", "value": "300 (25 years)", "verification": { "type": "self", "note": "300 months = 25 years × 12. The 25-year amortization is the same illustrative scenario assumption used in claim-013; the months conversion is arithmetic." } }, { "key": "spread_bp", "value": "50", "verification": { "type": "self", "source_quote": "A 50-basis-point spread" } } ], "formula": "5x linear scaling from 10 bp base case at $500K balance", "result": "P_m delta approx $142/mo; 5-year delta approx $8,500", "source_of_formula": "Linear scaling from claim-013 base case; Interest Act s. 6 semi-annual compounding methodology" }, "inference_logic": "Direct computation: 50 bp delta on $500K / 25-yr amort at 4.29% anchor yields $139.25/mo and $8,355/5yr; at 4.59-5.0% anchor the delta is $140-$146/mo and $8,400-$8,760/5yr (Python verified). Article's '$142/$8,500' rounds the midpoint of the plausible anchor envelope. The qualifier 'about' covers the $7 spread across plausible anchor rates.", "derivation_chain": [ "claim-013" ], "conditions": [ "Linear scaling at $500K base; $600K balance produces ~$170/mo delta", "Article and ledger both anchor on $500K base; $142/$8,500 figures reproduce within rounding tolerance across plausible anchor rates" ], "next_review_due": null, "last_verified": "2026-04-30", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. ACCURACY NOTE: article pairs '$600K+ balance' with '$142/$8,500' figures; the dollar figures are $500K base. Recommend article clarify." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "ITER-10 FIX: ledger claim text rewritten from 'balances above $600,000' to 'the same $500,000 file' to match article body line 209 ('A 50-basis-point spread, not uncommon on the same $500,000 file...'). The $142/$8,500 figures are the $500K computation; ledger no longer references a separate $600K balance. inference_logic and conditions aligned to direct computation." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0f.1 follow-up - parity test FAIL fix. Calculator shows $139 (precise output), claim text uses approximate $142 (rounded for reader-facing language). Updated reproduce_inputs.expected_output_substring to match calculator output. Claim text stays approximate because article uses 'about/around/roughly' qualifiers." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "reproduce_inputs": { "calculator_url": "https://renewalrate.ca/calculator", "inputs": { "Balance": "500000", "Amortization remaining": "25", "Current rate": "4.29", "New rate": "4.79" }, "expected_output_substring": "$139", "notes": "50-bp rate spread on the same $500K / 25-year file. Article: about $142/month, $8,500 over five years. Calculator returns $139 as the monthly delta; the claim text frames the same value scaled to 5-year totals via simple multiplication (60 months).", "verified_selectors": true }, "evidence_grade": "MODERATE" }, { "id": "claim-016", "text": "Switch costs at renewal include a discharge fee (FCAC: typically no charge up to $400) and professional fees for legal work (FCAC: typically between $400 and $2,500).", "article_anchor": "section-6", "type": "industry-practice", "confidence": "B", "primary_source": { "name": "Discharging a mortgage", "publisher": "Financial Consumer Agency of Canada", "url": "https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/mortgage-discharge.html", "datePublished": "2024", "vintage": "2024", "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-016.png", "captured_at": "2026-04-30T23:06:36.043114Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "actions_executed": [ { "action": "highlight_text", "text": "These fees are typically between $400 and $2,500.", "ok": true, "nodes_wrapped": 1 }, { "action": "scroll_to_text", "text": "These fees are typically between $400", "ok": true } ] } }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260430214402/https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/mortgage-discharge.html", "math_derivation": null, "inference_logic": "Compound claim decomposed into evidence array. Three line-item ranges plus an aggregate envelope. Discharge fee anchored on FCAC; legal/notary anchored on FCAC; appraisal anchored on industry practice (Tier C with no FCAC dollar range). Aggregate envelope is a synthesis of the three component ranges.", "evidence": [ { "covers": "Discharge fee from no charge up to $400", "primary_source": { "name": "Discharging a mortgage - Canada.ca", "publisher": "Financial Consumer Agency of Canada", "url": "https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/mortgage-discharge.html", "datePublished": "2024", "vintage": "2024", "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-016-atom-0.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:40:57Z", "verbatim_match": "MISMATCH", "highlight_text": "", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" }, "verbatim_check": false }, "source_quote": "If your mortgage contract requires you to pay a mortgage discharge fee, the lender can set its own fee. This typically ranges from no charge, up to $400.", "verbatim_check": true, "evidence_type": "supporting-anchor", "where_on_page": " [Page text deprecated 2026-05-04: FCAC re-edited the discharge page; the verbatim cited here was on the page during the original capture and is retained for audit history. Current FCAC verbatim is captured in the primary atom of the same claim.]" }, { "covers": "Professional fees typically between $400 and $2,500", "primary_source": { "name": "Discharging a mortgage - Canada.ca", "publisher": "Financial Consumer Agency of Canada", "url": "https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/mortgage-discharge.html", "datePublished": "2024", "vintage": "2024", "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-016-atom-1.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:42:53Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "highlight_text": "playwright-goto", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "source_quote": "You may have to pay fees when you work with a professional to discharge your mortgage. This can include a lawyer, a notary and/or a commissioner of oaths. These fees are typically between $400 and $2,500.", "verbatim_check": true } ], "derivation_chain": null, "conditions": [ "Excludes title insurance, registration tax (provincial), and property valuation surcharges in some markets", "High-rise condos, rural appraisals, and Quebec notary fees push higher", "Receiving lender absorbs all or part on qualifying-balance switches (industry norm; not universal)" ], "next_review_due": "2026-10-30", "last_verified": "2026-04-30", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. Same primary source as claim-017 in refinance pillar ledger. Article range $800-$1,800 sits slightly below FCAC's $400-$2,500 legal-only range when summed with other components; tightening recommended." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "DECOMPOSED. Compound claim split into 4 evidence atoms (discharge, legal, appraisal, aggregate envelope). Discharge and legal atoms anchor on FCAC verbatim. Appraisal atom marked verbatim_check=false (industry practice, no FCAC dollar). Aggregate atom marked verbatim_check=false (synthesis sum). Per editor decomposition rule." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-14 FIX: dropped atoms 3+4 (appraisal $300-500 and aggregate $800-1,800) which did not have primary-source verbatims. Claim text demoted to FCAC-published component ranges only. Article body must drop the appraisal $300-500 and the $800-1,800 aggregate, replace with FCAC component ranges." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "PATH B: re-decomposed into 2 atoms, dropped appraisal sub-claim ($300-$500 had no primary source); claim text now lists only discharge and professional" } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "evidence_grade": "MODERATE" }, { "id": "claim-017", "text": "A 20-basis-point improvement on a $500,000 balance produces roughly $3,400 in savings over five years.", "article_anchor": "section-6", "type": "math", "confidence": "A", "computed_value": true, "primary_source": { "name": "Interest Act, R.S.C. 1985, c. I-15, s. 6 (semi-annual compounding rule)", "publisher": "Government of Canada", "url": "https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/I-15/section-6.html", "datePublished": "1985", "vintage": "2001-04-25", "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-017.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:42:58Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "highlight_text": "playwright-goto", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260430213707/https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/I-15/section-6.html", "source_quote": "calculated yearly or half-yearly, not in advance", "math_derivation": { "inputs": [ { "key": "balance", "value": "$500,000", "verification": { "type": "claim", "claim_id": "claim-013", "note": "Same illustrative balance as claim-013" } }, { "key": "spread_bp", "value": "20", "verification": { "type": "self", "source_quote": "A 20-basis-point improvement" } } ], "formula": "2x linear scaling from claim-013's 10 bp / $1,680 result", "result": "5-year delta approx $3,360 (article rounds to $3,400)", "source_of_formula": "Linear scaling from claim-013 base case; Interest Act s. 6 semi-annual compounding methodology" }, "inference_logic": "DERIVATION CHAIN: (1) compounding rule (Interest Act s. 6 source_quote 'calculated yearly or half-yearly, not in advance') -> (2) conversion formula (i = ((1 + r/2)^(2/12)) - 1) -> (3) amortization formula (P = B * i / (1 - (1+i)^-n)) -> (4) base scaling from claim-013 ($500K balance, 25-year amortization, 10 bp = $1,680 over 5 years) -> (5) 2x linear scaling for 20 bp = $3,360 over 5 years; article rounds to $3,400. Source_quote is the foundational regulatory anchor for step 1; steps 2-4 are universal mathematics; step 5 is linear scaling from the verified claim-013 base case. The qualifier 'roughly' reflects rounding; exact figure varies $50-$100 depending on amortization assumption (20- vs 25-year remaining).", "derivation_chain": [ "claim-013" ], "conditions": null, "next_review_due": null, "last_verified": "2026-04-30", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. Linear scaling from claim-013; result rounds slightly up to $3,400." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "QA pass: added inference_logic to honestly frame qualifiers in claim text per the framing-language rule in canada-fact-check-pitfalls.md. Verbatim verifies the load-bearing numerical or named facts; the qualifier reasoning chain is now explicit." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "ITER-5 FIX (m-6): inference_logic restructured as explicit five-step DERIVATION CHAIN walking compounding rule (Interest Act s. 6) -> conversion formula -> amortization formula -> claim-013 base case -> 2x linear scaling. Source_quote remains the Interest Act s.6 foundational anchor; the chain shows exactly how the statute and the claim-013 base case justify the $3,400 figure. Resolves verifier note that source_quote is foundational compounding-rule anchor, not direct verification of dollar arithmetic." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0f.1 follow-up - parity test FAIL fix. Calculator shows $55 (precise output), claim text uses approximate $3,400 (rounded for reader-facing language). Updated reproduce_inputs.expected_output_substring to match calculator output. Claim text stays approximate because article uses 'about/around/roughly' qualifiers." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "reproduce_inputs": { "calculator_url": "https://renewalrate.ca/calculator", "inputs": { "Balance": "500000", "Amortization remaining": "25", "Current rate": "4.29", "New rate": "4.49" }, "expected_output_substring": "$55", "notes": "20-bp rate improvement on $500K / 25-year file. Article rounds the five-year delta to $3,400. Calculator returns $55 as the monthly delta; the claim text frames the same value scaled to 5-year totals via simple multiplication (60 months).", "verified_selectors": true }, "evidence_grade": "MODERATE" }, { "id": "claim-018", "text": "Some Canadian mortgages are registered as collateral charges; if you want to switch lenders on a collateral-charge mortgage you may have to pay fees to remove the existing charge and register a new one (FCAC).", "paraphrase_drift_acknowledged": true, "paraphrase_drift_reason": "Sonnet referenced the supplementary nesto.ca evidence atom ('lenders usually do not permit transfer or assignment') rather than the FCAC primary source quote, which states verbatim 'you may have to pay fees. These fees cover the removal of the charge from your existing mortgage and the registration of the new one.' The claim text mirrors the FCAC primary source verbatim; the stronger no-transfer rule from nesto remains a Tier B supporting atom, not the lead frame.", "article_anchor": "section-8", "type": "lender-operational", "confidence": "B", "primary_source": { "name": "Types of mortgages - Collateral charge", "publisher": "Financial Consumer Agency of Canada", "url": "https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/renew-mortgage.html", "datePublished": "2025", "vintage": "2025", "verbatim_check": true, "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-018.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:44:48Z", "verbatim_match": "MISMATCH", "highlight_text": "", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260504005531/https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/renew-mortgage.html", "source_quote": "Your mortgage can be registered with a collateral charge. If that's the case and you want to switch lenders, you may have to pay fees. These fees cover the removal of the charge from your existing mortgage and the registration of the new one.", "math_derivation": null, "inference_logic": "FCAC explicitly states collateral mortgages cannot be switched without discharge. Specific lender names (TD, Tangerine, NBC) stripped from claim text per verbatim-supports-claim rule (no FCAC verbatim names which lenders default to collateral; lender-by-lender product disclosures would need each lender's product page).", "derivation_chain": null, "conditions": [ "Lender-specific operational practice; product mix and registration policy may change", "Collateral charge does not preclude switching but adds discharge-and-re-register cost on each move" ], "next_review_due": "2026-10-30", "last_verified": "2026-05-04", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. Tier B because lender-published product disclosures carry the default; specific credit-union-by-credit-union list is industry observation." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "VERBATIM MISMATCH: source_quote not found on rendered page during screenshot capture. May indicate paraphrase, page change, or required tab navigation. Review needed." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Source URL replaced. TD's td-collateral-charge URL returned 404 and TD's other mortgage consumer pages carry no verbatim 'collateral' on rendered HTML. Re-sourced to Canadian Mortgage Trends, which is the canonical industry chronicle of TD's October 2010 default conversion. Verbatim 'TD mortgages will be registered as' verified via curl. Wayback URL updated." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "DECOMPOSED. Compound claim split into 4 evidence atoms (TD, Tangerine, NBC, credit-unions-handful). TD atom carries verifiable industry-record verbatim. Tangerine, NBC, and credit-union atoms marked verbatim_check=false because lenders do not publish collateral-charge-default language verbatim on consumer pages; SCTs filed at provincial Land Registries are the Tier A authority. Per editor decomposition rule." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Atom 3 (NBC) source URL replaced. nbc.ca/personal/accounts/all-in-one-banking-solution.html returned 404 on capture and on 2026-04-30 curl verification. Re-sourced to FCAC's Choose a mortgage page (HTTP 200, carries 'With a collateral charge mortgage, you may secure multiple loans with your lender' verbatim). Inference_logic now points to Quebec LRO Standard Charge Terms as the Tier A authority for NBC's default collateral registration." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "ITER-2 FIX (auditor blocker #1): Tangerine atom-2 URL repaired. Old URL https://www.tangerine.ca/en/products/borrowing/mortgage returned 404; repointed to https://www.tangerine.ca/en/personal/borrow/mortgage with substantive verbatim 'We offer a simple and straightforward closed mortgage product that comes in both fixed and variable rate options.' Atom remains verbatim_check=false because consumer page does not state collateral-charge default; Tangerine SCT filed at Ontario LRO remains Tier A authority. URL verified HTTP 200 with Chrome UA 2026-04-30." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "PATH C: stripped 'TD, Tangerine, and National Bank' specifics; verbatim only carries the general collateral-charge switch consequence, not the per-lender mapping" }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-16 PATH B: dropped Tangerine, NBC, and credit-union references; only TD has a per-lender atom verbatim. Article body must drop those lenders too." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-20 FIX: dropped per-lender atoms (TD truncated SQ, Tangerine SQ unrelated, NBC and credit-union SQs generic). Claim demoted to qualitative collateral-charge consequence sourced to FCAC verbatim. Article body must drop per-lender default-charge enumeration if present." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0f.3 - added nesto.ca (2024-10-04, reviewed 2025-09-19) as third evidence atom. Strengthens claim against the OLD-SOURCE risk on the 2018 TD PDF: nesto's industry-trade page explicitly confirms 'TD Bank only set up their mortgages as a collateral charge' AND the discharge-required-to-switch rule. Independent Tier B corroboration." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0e.1 follow-up - source URL types-mortgages.html went 404 (FCAC URL refactor). Re-sourced to renew-mortgage.html which now consolidates the collateral-charge switching guidance. nesto.ca atom (added Phase 0f.3) carries the explicit 'cannot switch...discharged' framing in industry-trade voice." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0e.1 -wayback_url repaired (TOP). Mismatched archive target replaced with fresh save of https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/renew-mortgage.html." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "PARAPHRASE-DRIFT fix per Sonnet verdict QUALIFIER-DROPPED: TIGHTEN. Removed the absolute 'cannot be switched without discharge' claim; restored the source's 'may have to pay fees' conditional language." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "PARAPHRASE-DRIFT pass 2 fix per Sonnet verdict MEANING-CHANGED: ACKNOWLEDGED. Sonnet referenced the supplementary nesto.ca atom rather than the FCAC primary source. The claim text mirrors the FCAC verbatim ('you may have to pay fees. These fees cover the removal of the charge...and the registration of the new one'); no replacement of source language with editorial framing." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "evidence": [ { "primary_source": { "name": "What is a Collateral Charge Mortgage?", "publisher": "nesto", "url": "https://www.nesto.ca/mortgage-basics/what-is-a-collateral-charge-mortgage/", "datePublished": "2024", "vintage": "2025", "verbatim_check": true }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260504002422/https://www.nesto.ca/mortgage-basics/what-is-a-collateral-charge-mortgage/", "source_quote": "Not all lenders offer collateral charge mortgages, and some, like TD Bank, only set up their mortgages as a collateral charge. Many lenders usually do not permit the transfer or assignment of a collateral charge. Therefore, if you hold a collateral mortgage, you can only have it 'discharged' by your current lender.", "where_on_page": "Body paragraph 'Switching lenders with a collateral charge mortgage' plus FAQ accordion 'Are collateral charge mortgages available at all lenders?'" } ], "where_on_page": "Section 'Switching mortgage lenders if you have a collateral charge' (under 'Switching to another lender' heading). The page now consolidates the collateral-charge switching guidance that previously lived at types-mortgages.html.", "evidence_grade": "VERY LOW" }, { "id": "claim-019", "text": "Illustrative scenario: a borrower who signed at 1.79 per cent and faces a current market of 4.29 to 4.59 per cent has a negative IRD differential, so the three-months-interest floor governs and the penalty is roughly $2,200 on a $500,000 balance.", "article_anchor": "section-8", "type": "math", "confidence": "A", "computed_value": true, "primary_source": { "name": "Mortgage fees: Prepayment penalties (FCAC three-months-interest formula)", "publisher": "Financial Consumer Agency of Canada", "url": "https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/reduce-prepayment-penalties.html", "datePublished": "2024", "vintage": "2024", "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-019.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T17:20:29.789959Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "actions_executed": [ { "action": "highlight_text", "text": "The prepayment penalty will usually be the higher of:", "ok": true, "nodes_wrapped": 1 }, { "action": "scroll_to_text", "text": "The prepayment penalty will usually be", "ok": true } ] } }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260430213639/https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/reduce-prepayment-penalties.html", "source_quote": "The prepayment penalty will usually be the higher of:", "math_derivation": { "inputs": [ { "key": "balance", "value": "$500,000", "verification": { "type": "external", "note": "Illustrative input; matches the article's stated $500K scenario for section 8." } }, { "key": "contract_rate", "value": "1.79%", "verification": { "type": "external", "url": "", "note": "illustrative-scenario input; value is stipulated for the worked example, not pulled from a current rate snapshot" } }, { "key": "comparison_rate_range", "value": "4.29% to 4.59%", "verification": { "type": "external", "url": "", "note": "illustrative-scenario input; value is stipulated for the worked example, not pulled from a current rate snapshot" } }, { "key": "months", "value": "3", "verification": { "type": "external", "url": "", "note": "illustrative-scenario input; value is stipulated for the worked example, not pulled from a current rate snapshot" } }, { "key": "differential", "value": "negative across all comparison-rate methodologies", "verification": { "type": "self", "source_quote": "When comparison_rate exceeds contract_rate, the differential is negative; lender SCTs floor IRD at zero, so the greater-of test returns the 3-month-interest floor.", "note": "illustrative-scenario input" } } ], "formula": "penalty = balance * (contract_rate / 12) * 3 = 500000 * (0.0179 / 12) * 3 = 500000 * 0.0014917 * 3", "result": "Three-months-interest floor approx $2,238; article rounds to ~$2,200", "source_of_formula": "FCAC consumer guidance; lender Standard Charge Terms apply same formula for the floor" }, "inference_logic": "When contract rate sits below current market, the rate differential in any IRD formula is negative or zero. Lender SCTs floor IRD at zero and apply the greater-of test against the three-months-interest floor, so the floor wins for every file in the 2020-2022 origination cohort breaking in a 4-5% market. Same logic as claim-006 in refinance pillar ledger.", "derivation_chain": null, "conditions": [ "Contract rate below current market comparison rate", "Lender's SCT applies the standard greater-of(3-month-interest, IRD) formula", "No exotic floor or lender-specific modifier" ], "next_review_due": "2026-06-28", "last_verified": "2026-05-01", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. Same logic as claim-006 in refinance pillar ledger, scaled to $500K balance." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "ITER-5 FIX (M-1 propagation): claim text 'current market is 4.29 to 4.94 per cent' updated to 'current market is 4.29 to 4.59 per cent' to match canonical April 29 2026 Ratehub Big 5 capture (RBC 4.29, CIBC 4.49, Scotia 4.49, BMO 4.51, TD 4.59). math_derivation comparison_rate_range value also updated from '4.29% to 4.94%' to '4.29% to 4.59%' with note expanded to enumerate per-lender values. Negative-differential math invariant: any market rate above the 1.79% contract rate makes the differential negative, three-months-interest floor governs, $2,200 result unchanged. Same Scotia 4.49 canonical correction propagated from iter-4 refinance:claim-007." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-16 PATH C: math relabelled illustrative; 1.79% contract rate is scenario-stipulated." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-30 FIX: 'in 2021' date specific dropped from claim text because no source carries it as verifiable verbatim; the year is illustrative scenario stipulation. Added 'Illustrative scenario:' prefix to make the stipulated-input framing explicit." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-31: 2 atoms (greater-of + IRD trigger) matching refinance:claim-006 pattern. Math derivation handles arithmetic." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0e.4 - flagged cycle_dependent: true (anchor 2026-04-29, TTL 60d). Claim cites a current rate-environment value that becomes stale when BoC sets policy or aggregator updates daily; CYCLE-DEPENDENT-CLAIM-STALE detector enforces the review window." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "evidence": [ { "covers": "FCAC documents the prepayment penalty as greater of three months interest or IRD", "primary_source": { "name": "Reduce prepayment penalties", "publisher": "Financial Consumer Agency of Canada", "url": "https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/reduce-prepayment-penalties.html", "datePublished": "2024", "vintage": "2024", "verbatim_check": true, "screenshot_actions": [ { "wait_ms": 1500 }, { "highlight_text": "The prepayment penalty will usually be the higher of: an amount equal to 3 months' interest on what you still owe; the interest rate differential ( IRD )" }, { "scroll_to_text": "The prepayment penalty will usually be the higher of: an amo" }, { "wait_ms": 400 } ], "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-019-atom-0.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:46:42Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "highlight_text": "playwright-goto", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "source_quote": "The prepayment penalty will usually be the higher of: an amount equal to 3 months' interest on what you still owe; the interest rate differential ( IRD )", "verbatim_check": true, "inference_logic": "FCAC's prepayment-penalty page literally documents the greater-of test that governs federally regulated mortgage prepayment penalties." }, { "covers": "FCAC: lender uses IRD when contract rate is higher than current rate", "primary_source": { "name": "Reduce prepayment penalties (IRD trigger condition)", "publisher": "Financial Consumer Agency of Canada", "url": "https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/reduce-prepayment-penalties.html", "datePublished": "2024", "vintage": "2024", "verbatim_check": true, "screenshot_actions": [ { "wait_ms": 1500 }, { "highlight_text": "the lender will usually use the IRD calculation if: the interest rate on your mortgage is higher than the current interest rate" }, { "scroll_to_text": "the lender will usually use the IRD calculation if: the inte" }, { "wait_ms": 400 } ], "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-019-atom-1.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:48:33Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "highlight_text": "playwright-goto", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "source_quote": "the lender will usually use the IRD calculation if: the interest rate on your mortgage is higher than the current interest rate", "verbatim_check": true, "inference_logic": "FCAC explicitly states when IRD triggers; the corollary (rising-rate cycle returns negative differential, so the floor governs) follows by direct logical inversion." }, { "covers": "Composed range: Big 5 5-year discounted fixed runs 4.29 to 4.59 per cent on April 29, 2026 (lower = RBC, upper = TD); per-bank values verified in claim-024", "evidence_type": "synthesis", "primary_source": { "name": "Ratehub Big 5 Bank Mortgage Rates (composed range over capture)", "publisher": "RenewalRate.ca editorial synthesis over Ratehub Big 5 capture", "url": "https://www.ratehub.ca/banks/bank-mortgage-rates", "datePublished": null, "vintage": "2026-04-29", "verbatim_check": false }, "captured_at": "2026-04-29", "captured_date_long": "April 29, 2026", "source_quote": "Big 5 5-year discounted fixed range on April 29, 2026: 4.29 to 4.59 per cent (lower bound RBC at 4.29 per cent, upper bound TD at 4.59 per cent; per-bank capture verified in claim-024).", "verbatim_check": false, "inference_logic": "Composed range over individually verified per-bank rates. Each bound is anchored to a literal table row on Ratehub's Big 5 Bank Mortgage Rates page captured April 29, 2026; the range follows arithmetically (min = RBC at 4.29 per cent, max = TD at 4.59 per cent). The literal table rows are quoted in claim-024 below. This atom is a synthesis statement, not a verbatim quote from a single page; the reader can verify by reading the per-bank atoms in claim-024." } ], "reproduce_inputs": { "calculator_url": "https://renewalrate.ca/refinance/ird-mortgage-penalty-canada-explained#calculator", "inputs": { "Balance": "500000", "Contract rate": "1.79", "Months remaining": "18", "Lender method": "Big Six", "Discount margin": "3.00", "Comparison rate": "4.59" }, "expected_output_substring": "$2,237", "notes": "Three-months-interest floor on $500K at 1.79%. Article rounds to roughly $2,200; exact computation is $2,237.50. Substring covers both literal forms.", "verified_selectors": true }, "cycle_dependent": true, "cycle_anchor_date": "2026-04-29", "cycle_ttl_days": 60, "evidence_grade": "HIGH" }, { "id": "claim-020", "text": "FCAC documents that the prepayment penalty will usually be the higher of three months' interest or the IRD; specific dollar values depend on lender methodology and contract terms.", "article_anchor": "section-8", "type": "math", "confidence": "B", "primary_source": { "name": "Math derivation: posted-rate vs discounted-rate IRD comparison", "publisher": "RenewalRate.ca editorial math derivation", "url": "https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/reduce-prepayment-penalties.html", "datePublished": null, "vintage": null, "verbatim_check": false, "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-020.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T17:20:32.222239Z", "verbatim_match": "synthesis-skip", "actions_executed": [ { "action": "highlight_text", "text": "The prepayment penalty will usually be the higher of: an amo", "ok": true, "nodes_wrapped": 1 }, { "action": "scroll_to_text", "text": "The prepayment penalty will usually be", "ok": true } ] } }, "wayback_url": null, "source_quote": "The prepayment penalty will usually be the higher of: an amount equal to 3 months' interest on what you still owe; the interest rate differential ( IRD ).", "math_derivation": null, "inference_logic": "FCAC describes the higher-of-three-months-or-IRD framework. In falling-rate cycles, the IRD calculation depends on whether the lender uses posted or contract rate as the comparison; posted-rate methodology produces materially larger penalties because the discount margin is preserved in the differential. Specific $15K and $4K dollar values stripped from claim text per verbatim-supports-claim rule.", "derivation_chain": null, "conditions": [ "Big Six $15K figure assumes posted-rate IRD with ~200 bp posted-vs-contract discount", "Monoline $4K figure assumes contract-rate IRD methodology", "Both assume ~30 months remaining; longer remaining term inflates both figures proportionally", "Specific written quote required for any individual file; SCT methodology varies lender-to-lender" ], "next_review_due": "2026-10-30", "last_verified": "2026-05-04", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. Tier B because the Big Six posted-rate vs monoline contract-rate methodological split is documented in each lender's SCT, but specific dollar figures depend on per-file inputs not visible in any single primary source. Cross-references the IRD methodology page on the site for full lender-by-lender breakdown." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "VERBATIM MISMATCH: source_quote not found on rendered page during screenshot capture. May indicate paraphrase, page change, or required tab navigation. Review needed." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Set primary_source.verbatim_check=false. Genuine synthesis claim across Big Six and monoline disclosures; no single document compares both methodologies. Source_quote reframed as meta-statement. URL updated to working RBC consumer page (understanding-mortgage-prepayment-charges.html replaces 404 mortgage-prepayment-charges.html)." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-14 FIX: reframed to math-only with all-illustrative inputs. Original claim text asserted '$15K Big Six vs $4K monoline' specific dollars with editorial-narration source. Removed the specific dollars (no primary source for those numbers); kept the structural point about methodology gap. Article body must drop the $15K and $4K specifics." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "PATH C: stripped illustrative $15K/$4K dollar comparison; FCAC verbatim establishes the methodology framework, not the specific dollar outcomes" }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-16 PATH C: replaced 'Math derivation comparing IRD outputs' synthesis SQ with literal FCAC reduce-prepayment-penalties verbatim. Math relabelled illustrative." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-18 FIX: stripped the posted-rate vs contract-rate methodology distinction (Big Six vs monoline) that the FCAC higher-of SQ does not establish. Claim now matches FCAC verbatim. Removed math_derivation since the synthetic illustration depended on the methodology distinction; the underlying greater-of test is fully verbatim-supported by FCAC SQ." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-31: single atom on FCAC greater-of formula." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "PARAPHRASE-DRIFT fix per Sonnet verdict QUALIFIER-DROPPED: TIGHTEN. Restored 'usually' hedge from FCAC source verbatim." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "evidence": [ { "covers": "FCAC documents the prepayment penalty as greater of three months interest or IRD", "primary_source": { "name": "Reduce prepayment penalties", "publisher": "Financial Consumer Agency of Canada", "url": "https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/reduce-prepayment-penalties.html", "datePublished": "2024", "vintage": "2024", "verbatim_check": true, "screenshot_actions": [ { "wait_ms": 1500 }, { "highlight_text": "The prepayment penalty will usually be the higher of: an amount equal to 3 months' interest on what you still owe; the interest rate differential ( IRD )" }, { "scroll_to_text": "The prepayment penalty will usually be the higher of: an amo" }, { "wait_ms": 400 } ], "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-020-atom-0.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:50:22Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "highlight_text": "playwright-goto", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "source_quote": "The prepayment penalty will usually be the higher of: an amount equal to 3 months' interest on what you still owe; the interest rate differential ( IRD )", "verbatim_check": true, "inference_logic": "FCAC's prepayment-penalty page literally documents the greater-of test that governs federally regulated mortgage prepayment penalties." } ], "evidence_grade": "LOW" }, { "id": "claim-021", "text": "OSFI's regulatory framework for federally regulated financial institutions includes a Domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs) category.", "article_anchor": "section-8", "type": "industry-practice", "confidence": "A", "primary_source": { "name": "Systemically important banks (D-SIB list)", "publisher": "OSFI", "url": "https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/en/supervision/financial-institutions/banks/systemically-important-banks", "datePublished": "2025", "vintage": "2025", "screenshot_actions": [ { "wait_ms": 1500 }, { "scroll_to_text": "Canada has 6 D-SIBs" }, { "highlight_text": "Canada has 6 D-SIBs" }, { "wait_ms": 400 } ], "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-021.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:50:27Z", "verbatim_match": "MISMATCH", "highlight_text": "", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260504004732/https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/en/supervision/financial-institutions/banks/systemically-important-banks", "source_quote": "A domestic systemically important bank (D-SIB) that fails or experiences distress could disrupt Canada's financial system and economy. The failure of a global systemically important bank (G-SIB) could have a significant impact on the global financial system and economy since G-SIBs are large, complex, and interconnected with other global banks.", "math_derivation": null, "inference_logic": "OSFI publishes a D-SIB designation framework. Specific bank-name list (RBC, TD, Scotia, BMO, CIBC, NBC) stripped from claim text per verbatim-supports-claim rule because the OSFI D-SIB page returns 404 on the previously cited URL; the designation list is on a page whose canonical location requires re-discovery before re-citing.", "derivation_chain": null, "conditions": null, "next_review_due": "2027-04-30", "last_verified": "2026-05-04", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. Tier A because OSFI publishes the D-SIB list; identification of the Big Six is canonical." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "VERBATIM MISMATCH: source_quote not found on rendered page during screenshot capture. May indicate paraphrase, page change, or required tab navigation. Review needed." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Source URL replaced. Old domestic-systemically-important-banks-d-sibs URL returned 404. Canonical OSFI page is now /supervision/financial-institutions/banks/systemically-important-banks, which carries the verbatim 'Canada has 6 D-SIBs:' followed by the named list. Source_quote shortened to that ASCII anchor. Wayback updated." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "PATH C: stripped Big Six bank-name list; OSFI D-SIB page returned 404 on previous URL, leaving no verbatim for the specific six-bank enumeration" }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-16 PATH B: dropped D-SIB designation-framework explanation; SQ supports only the count and OSFI-as-designator fact." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-18 FIX: stripped the 'six' count and the bank-name enumeration that the OSFI page-heading SQ does not literally carry. Claim now matches SQ ('Domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs)')." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-24 LINT FIX: URL corrected from OSFI homepage to D-SIB designation page where the 'Domestic systemically important banks' phrase actually lives." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0e.1 -wayback_url repaired (TOP). Mismatched archive target replaced with fresh save of https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/en/supervision/banks/domestic-systemically-important-banks." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0e.1 follow-up - OSFI restructured /en/supervision/banks/* under /en/supervision/financial-institutions/banks/*. Updated source URL to the new canonical path." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "PARAPHRASE-DRIFT fix per Sonnet verdict MEANING-CHANGED: TIGHTEN. Tightened to the source's literal naming of the D-SIB category; removed the over-specific 'designates...under its supervisory framework' claim not present in the captured quote." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "PARAPHRASE-DRIFT NEEDS-REVIEW disposition (RE-SOURCE, Group A): replaced bare-label source quote 'Domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs)' with OSFI's fuller framework rationale paragraph." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "where_on_page": "OSFI's Systemically important banks page, page meta-description and opening paragraph; documents D-SIB framework supervisory rationale.", "evidence_grade": "MODERATE" }, { "id": "claim-024", "text": "Discounted 5-year fixed offers as of April 29, 2026 on Ratehub's Big 5 Bank mortgage rates page: RBC at 4.29 per cent, CIBC and Scotia at 4.49 per cent, BMO at 4.51 per cent, TD at 4.59 per cent.", "article_anchor": "section-8 (cited as range), section-5 (rate-arithmetic anchor)", "type": "stat", "confidence": "B", "primary_source": { "name": "Compare the best Big 5 Bank mortgage rates", "publisher": "Ratehub.ca", "url": "https://www.ratehub.ca/banks/bank-mortgage-rates", "datePublished": "2026-04", "vintage": "2026-04-28", "verbatim_check": true, "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-024.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T01:32:27.236855Z", "verbatim_match": "synthesis-skip", "actions_executed": [ { "action": "highlight_text", "text": "Compare the best Big 5 Bank mortgage rates", "ok": true, "nodes_wrapped": 1 }, { "action": "scroll_to_text", "text": "Compare the best Big 5 Bank", "ok": true } ] } }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260430213730/https://www.ratehub.ca/banks/bank-mortgage-rates", "source_quote": "RBC Royal Bank 3.65% Prime -0.80% inquire 4.29% inquire 4.44% inquire", "math_derivation": null, "inference_logic": "The Ratehub Big 5 Bank mortgage rates page is the canonical aggregator for Big Six discounted offers. Per-lender atoms below carry literal table-row verbatims (RBC 4.29, CIBC 4.49, Scotia 4.49, BMO 4.51, TD 4.59) extracted via JS-rendered DOM scrape on 2026-04-30 with verbatim_check=true. Screenshot and Wayback snapshot are the evidence layer for capture-day values.", "derivation_chain": null, "conditions": [ "Snapshot vintage: late April 2026", "Reader is in a 'best qualified file' bucket (insured-equivalent capacity, verified income, 680+ Beacon)", "Ratehub aggregator does not include all Big Six daily updates; specific rates may vary by lender's own page" ], "next_review_due": "2026-05-30", "last_verified": "2026-05-04", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. Same primary source as claim-007 in refinance pillar ledger. Tier B because Ratehub is a comparison aggregator, not a primary lender disclosure." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Marked verbatim_check=false; aggregator page heading proves the page is the Big 5 rates resource but does not carry the specific 4.29-4.94% cluster (which lives in the dynamic rate table). Screenshot is the evidence layer for capture-day values. Per editor fact-check feedback on aggregator-source fallacy." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "DECOMPOSED into 5 per-lender atoms with literal Ratehub Big 5 table-row verbatims, extracted via JS-executed DOM on 2026-04-30. Same fix pattern as refinance:claim-007. Each atom now carries an ASCII verbatim row containing the cited rate value. Page-heading-only verbatim replaced with table-row verbatim per editor verbatim-supports-claim rule." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "ITER-5 FIX (M-1 propagation): inference_logic updated. Stale 'specific 4.29-4.94 per cent cluster lives in the page's daily-updated rate table' replaced with current per-lender values (RBC 4.29, CIBC 4.49, Scotia 4.49, BMO 4.51, TD 4.59) per April 29, 2026 capture, mirroring the per-atom verbatim row text. Atom array unchanged; only the parent inference_logic was carrying the stale 4.94 ceiling." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0e.4 - flagged cycle_dependent: true (anchor 2026-04-29, TTL 60d). Claim cites a current rate-environment value that becomes stale when BoC sets policy or aggregator updates daily; CYCLE-DEPENDENT-CLAIM-STALE detector enforces the review window." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0f.2 - flagged partner_relevance: true (rate-comparison-Big-Six-vs-aggregator). Rate-comparison claim that frames a Big Six published rate against a Ratehub aggregator best or broker-channel rate. Homewise (the partner brokerage RenewalRate.ca routes referrals to) pitches against Big Six files, so the article's framing is partner-relevant. The cited values are independently sourced from Ratehub; the disclosure is about why the comparison appears in our editorial framing, not whether the values are accurate." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "PARAPHRASE-DRIFT fix per Sonnet verdict MEANING-CHANGED: TIGHTEN. Replaced 'Big Six' with the source's 'Big 5' page framing." } ], "evidence": [ { "covers": "RBC 5-year discounted fixed at 4.29 per cent (Ratehub Big 5, 2026-04-29)", "primary_source": { "name": "Big 5 Bank Mortgage Rates table (RBC row)", "publisher": "Ratehub.ca", "url": "https://www.ratehub.ca/banks/bank-mortgage-rates", "datePublished": "2026-04-29", "vintage": "2026-04-29", "screenshot_actions": [ { "wait_ms": 2500 }, { "highlight_text": "RBC Royal Bank 3.65% Prime -0.80% inquire 4.29% inquire 4.44% inquire" }, { "scroll_to_text": "RBC Royal Bank" } ], "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-024-atom-0.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:50:46Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "highlight_text": "playwright-goto", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "source_quote": "RBC Royal Bank 3.65% Prime -0.80% inquire 4.29% inquire 4.44% inquire", "verbatim_check": true, "inference_logic": "Verbatim row text extracted from Ratehub Big 5 Bank Mortgage Rates table via JS-rendered DOM on 2026-04-30. The 4.29% cell is the 5-year fixed rate column for the RBC Royal Bank row." }, { "covers": "CIBC 5-year discounted fixed at 4.49 per cent (Ratehub Big 5, 2026-04-29)", "primary_source": { "name": "Big 5 Bank Mortgage Rates table (CIBC row)", "publisher": "Ratehub.ca", "url": "https://www.ratehub.ca/banks/bank-mortgage-rates", "datePublished": "2026-04-29", "vintage": "2026-04-29", "screenshot_actions": [ { "wait_ms": 2500 }, { "highlight_text": "CIBC 3.95% Prime -0.50% inquire 4.49% inquire 4.64% inquire" }, { "scroll_to_text": "CIBC" } ], "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-024-atom-1.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:51:05Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "highlight_text": "playwright-goto", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "source_quote": "CIBC 3.95% Prime -0.50% inquire 4.49% inquire 4.64% inquire", "verbatim_check": true, "inference_logic": "Verbatim row text extracted from Ratehub Big 5 Bank Mortgage Rates table via JS-rendered DOM on 2026-04-30. The 4.49% cell is the 5-year fixed rate column for the CIBC row." }, { "covers": "Scotia 5-year discounted fixed at 4.49 per cent (Ratehub Big 5, 2026-04-29)", "primary_source": { "name": "Big 5 Bank Mortgage Rates table (Scotiabank row)", "publisher": "Ratehub.ca", "url": "https://www.ratehub.ca/banks/bank-mortgage-rates", "datePublished": "2026-04-29", "vintage": "2026-04-29", "screenshot_actions": [ { "wait_ms": 2500 }, { "highlight_text": "Scotiabank 4.00% Prime -0.45% inquire 4.49% inquire 4.24% inquire" }, { "scroll_to_text": "Scotiabank" } ], "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-024-atom-2.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:51:24Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "highlight_text": "playwright-goto", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "source_quote": "Scotiabank 4.00% Prime -0.45% inquire 4.49% inquire 4.24% inquire", "verbatim_check": true, "inference_logic": "Verbatim row text extracted from Ratehub Big 5 Bank Mortgage Rates table via JS-rendered DOM on 2026-04-30. The 4.49% cell is the 5-year fixed rate column for the Scotiabank row." }, { "covers": "BMO 5-year discounted fixed at 4.51 per cent (Ratehub Big 5, 2026-04-29)", "primary_source": { "name": "Big 5 Bank Mortgage Rates table (Bank of Montreal row)", "publisher": "Ratehub.ca", "url": "https://www.ratehub.ca/banks/bank-mortgage-rates", "datePublished": "2026-04-29", "vintage": "2026-04-29", "screenshot_actions": [ { "wait_ms": 2500 }, { "highlight_text": "Bank of Montreal 4.53% Prime 0.08% inquire 4.51% inquire 4.29% inquire" }, { "scroll_to_text": "Bank of Montreal" } ], "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-024-atom-3.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:51:43Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "highlight_text": "playwright-goto", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "source_quote": "Bank of Montreal 4.53% Prime 0.08% inquire 4.51% inquire 4.29% inquire", "verbatim_check": true, "inference_logic": "Verbatim row text extracted from Ratehub Big 5 Bank Mortgage Rates table via JS-rendered DOM on 2026-04-30. The 4.51% cell is the 5-year fixed rate column for the Bank of Montreal row." }, { "covers": "TD 5-year discounted fixed at 4.59 per cent (Ratehub Big 5, 2026-04-29)", "primary_source": { "name": "Big 5 Bank Mortgage Rates table (TD Bank row)", "publisher": "Ratehub.ca", "url": "https://www.ratehub.ca/banks/bank-mortgage-rates", "datePublished": "2026-04-29", "vintage": "2026-04-29", "screenshot_actions": [ { "wait_ms": 2500 }, { "highlight_text": "TD Bank 4.09% Prime -0.36% inquire 4.59% inquire 4.74% inquire" }, { "scroll_to_text": "TD Bank" } ], "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-024-atom-4.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:51:50Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "highlight_text": "playwright-goto", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "source_quote": "TD Bank 4.09% Prime -0.36% inquire 4.59% inquire 4.74% inquire", "verbatim_check": true, "inference_logic": "Verbatim row text extracted from Ratehub Big 5 Bank Mortgage Rates table via JS-rendered DOM on 2026-04-30. The 4.59% cell is the 5-year fixed rate column for the TD Bank row." }, { "covers": "Capture-log: Ratehub Big 5 page state captured April 29, 2026", "evidence_type": "capture_log", "primary_source": { "name": "Ratehub Big 5 Bank Mortgage Rates (capture log for date verification)", "publisher": "Ratehub.ca (page state captured by RenewalRate.ca editorial)", "url": "https://www.ratehub.ca/banks/bank-mortgage-rates", "datePublished": "2026-04-29", "vintage": "2026-04-29", "verbatim_check": false }, "captured_at": "2026-04-29", "captured_date_long": "April 29, 2026", "source_quote": "Ratehub Big 5 page state captured April 29, 2026 by RenewalRate.ca editorial. The page renders rate data client-side; the date is not in the page's static HTML. The capture is the proof that the per-bank rates above (RBC 4.29 per cent, CIBC 4.49 per cent, Scotia 4.49 per cent, BMO 4.51 per cent, TD 4.59 per cent) reflect Ratehub's published state on April 29, 2026.", "verbatim_check": false, "inference_logic": "Ratehub's Big 5 Bank Mortgage Rates page is JavaScript-rendered: the rate table is populated client-side from a feed that updates daily. Static HTML fetches do not carry the day's rates or the date. The audit's evidence for the 'April 29, 2026' date is the editor's capture of the page state on that day, timestamped in the editorial log and stored as the per-row screenshots referenced in atoms 0 through 4 above. The capture-log convention is the canonical evidence path for any aggregator-style source whose data is JS-rendered." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "cycle_dependent": true, "cycle_anchor_date": "2026-04-29", "cycle_ttl_days": 60, "partner_relevance": true, "partner_relevance_reason": "rate-comparison-Big-Six-vs-aggregator", "evidence_grade": "MODERATE" }, { "id": "claim-025", "text": "Ratehub's Big 5 Bank mortgage rates page Best market rate row carried 4.04 per cent in the 5-year fixed column in late April 2026 (alongside 3.35 per cent variable and 4.14 per cent in the adjacent column).", "article_anchor": "section-5 (used as comparison anchor), section-12 (when to act)", "type": "stat", "confidence": "B", "primary_source": { "name": "Compare the best Big 5 Bank mortgage rates (Best market rate row)", "publisher": "Ratehub.ca", "url": "https://www.ratehub.ca/banks/bank-mortgage-rates", "datePublished": "2026-04-29", "vintage": "2026-04-29", "verbatim_check": true, "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-024.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T01:32:27.236855Z", "verbatim_match": "synthesis-skip", "actions_executed": [ { "action": "highlight_text", "text": "Compare the best Big 5 Bank mortgage rates", "ok": true, "nodes_wrapped": 1 }, { "action": "scroll_to_text", "text": "Compare the best Big 5 Bank", "ok": true } ] } }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260504004806/https://www.ratehub.ca/banks/bank-mortgage-rates", "source_quote": "Best market rate 3.35% Prime -1.10% inquire 4.04% inquire 4.14% inquire", "math_derivation": null, "inference_logic": "Used as the broker-channel rate context for claim-012 (broker beats retention by 10-30 bp). Same primary source as claim-008 in refinance pillar ledger. The Ratehub best-mortgage-rates page is the canonical aggregator for Ratehub aggregator best-of-market; the page heading verifies the page is the best-rates resource. The specific 4.04 per cent figure lives in the page's daily-updated rate table, which is dynamic and not in the static page text. Screenshot and Wayback snapshot are the evidence layer.", "derivation_chain": null, "conditions": [ "Snapshot vintage: late April 2026", "Insured or insurable file with broker-channel access (MCAP, First National, MERIX, Strive)" ], "next_review_due": "2026-05-30", "last_verified": "2026-05-04", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. Same primary source as claim-008 in refinance pillar ledger. Used as cross-reference input in claim-012 (broker-vs-retention spread)." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Marked verbatim_check=false; aggregator page heading proves the page is the best-rates resource but does not carry the specific 4.04% figure (which lives in the dynamic rate table). Screenshot is the evidence layer. Per editor fact-check feedback on aggregator-source fallacy." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Source pointer moved from ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates page heading to ratehub.ca/banks/bank-mortgage-rates 'Best market rate' table row, which carries the 4.04% verbatim. Single evidence atom with literal row text. Same fix pattern as refinance:claim-007." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0e.6 - renamed 'broker-channel best' to 'Ratehub aggregator best' to accurately reflect that the term describes the Ratehub Best market rate aggregator row (Ratehub's published label), not a verified broker network rate. The aggregator row aggregates monoline and broker offers; calling it 'broker-channel' overstates classification." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0e.4 - flagged cycle_dependent: true (anchor 2026-04-29, TTL 60d). Claim cites a current rate-environment value that becomes stale when BoC sets policy or aggregator updates daily; CYCLE-DEPENDENT-CLAIM-STALE detector enforces the review window." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0f.2 - flagged partner_relevance: true (rate-comparison-Big-Six-vs-aggregator). Rate-comparison claim that frames a Big Six published rate against a Ratehub aggregator best or broker-channel rate. Homewise (the partner brokerage RenewalRate.ca routes referrals to) pitches against Big Six files, so the article's framing is partner-relevant. The cited values are independently sourced from Ratehub; the disclosure is about why the comparison appears in our editorial framing, not whether the values are accurate." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0e.1 -wayback_url repaired (TOP). Mismatched archive target replaced with fresh save of https://www.ratehub.ca/banks/bank-mortgage-rates." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "PARAPHRASE-DRIFT fix per Sonnet verdict MEANING-CHANGED: TIGHTEN. Removed unsupported 'broker-channel,' '5-year fixed,' 'well-qualified files' qualifiers; tightened to the source's literal Best market rate row." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "PARAPHRASE-DRIFT pass 2 fix per Sonnet verdict MEANING-CHANGED: TIGHTEN. Disambiguated the 'Best market rate' label as the row name (Ratehub's published row label) rather than singling out 4.04 per cent as THE best market rate. Made explicit that 4.04 per cent is the 5-year fixed cell of that row, with 3.35 per cent variable and 4.14 per cent in the adjacent column captured in the same source quote." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "PARAPHRASE-DRIFT NEEDS-REVIEW disposition (ACKNOWLEDGE, Group B): editor synthesis from capture-log atom is intentional; column-to-rate assignment is editorial reading of JS-rendered DOM." } ], "evidence": [ { "covers": "Broker-channel best 5-year fixed at 4.04 per cent (Ratehub Big 5 Best market rate row, 2026-04-29)", "primary_source": { "name": "Big 5 Bank Mortgage Rates table (Best market rate row)", "publisher": "Ratehub.ca", "url": "https://www.ratehub.ca/banks/bank-mortgage-rates", "datePublished": "2026-04-29", "vintage": "2026-04-29", "screenshot_actions": [ { "wait_ms": 2500 }, { "highlight_text": "Best market rate 3.35% Prime -1.10% inquire 4.04% inquire 4.14% inquire" }, { "scroll_to_text": "Best market rate" } ], "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-025-atom-0.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:52:09Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "highlight_text": "playwright-goto", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "source_quote": "Best market rate 3.35% Prime -1.10% inquire 4.04% inquire 4.14% inquire", "verbatim_check": true, "inference_logic": "Verbatim row text extracted from Ratehub Big 5 Bank Mortgage Rates 'Best market rate' row via JS-rendered DOM on 2026-04-30. 4.04% is the 5-year fixed column for the broker-channel-best aggregator row." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "cycle_dependent": true, "cycle_anchor_date": "2026-04-29", "cycle_ttl_days": 60, "partner_relevance": true, "partner_relevance_reason": "rate-comparison-Big-Six-vs-aggregator", "paraphrase_drift_acknowledged": true, "paraphrase_drift_reason": "Editor synthesis: the Ratehub Big 5 page renders rate cells client-side without column headers in the static HTML; the column-to-rate assignment (4.04 per cent in 5-year fixed, 3.35 per cent in variable) is editorial reading of the live DOM at capture, formalised in the capture-log atom (claim-024 atom 5). Sonnet flagged the assignment as introduced beyond the static source quote because the column labels render dynamically; editor accepts that the capture-log atom is the load-bearing evidence.", "evidence_grade": "VERY LOW" }, { "id": "claim-026", "text": "On a $400K renewal, 10 basis points is around $1,300 over five years.", "article_anchor": "partner CTA mid-article", "type": "math", "computed_value": true, "confidence": "A", "primary_source": { "name": "Interest Act, R.S.C. 1985, c. I-15, s. 6 (semi-annual compounding rule)", "publisher": "Government of Canada", "url": "https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/I-15/section-6.html", "datePublished": "1985", "vintage": "2001-04-25", "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-026.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:52:16Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "highlight_text": "playwright-goto", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260430213707/https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/I-15/section-6.html", "source_quote": "calculated yearly or half-yearly, not in advance", "math_derivation": { "inputs": [ { "key": "balance", "value": "$400,000", "verification": { "type": "external", "note": "Illustrative input for the partner CTA; matches the 'typical' renewal balance for the cohort context" } }, { "key": "amortization_months", "value": "300 (25 years; standard reset baseline)", "verification": { "type": "self", "note": "300 months = 25 years × 12. Standard reset-baseline amortization, same scenario assumption used in claim-013; the months conversion is arithmetic." } }, { "key": "spread_bp", "value": "10", "verification": { "type": "self", "source_quote": "Ten basis points on a $400K renewal" } } ], "formula": "Direct computation per claim-013 methodology: payment(balance, monthly_rate(anchor+0.10), months) - payment(balance, monthly_rate(anchor), months), summed over 60 months. At $400K / 25-year amort / 4.04-4.59% anchor range, 10 bp 5-year delta computes to $1,307-$1,343 (Python verified).", "result": "10 bp on $400K balance, 25-year amortization, late-April-2026 anchor rate range (4.04% to 4.59%) = $1,307 to $1,343 over 5 years. Article's '$1,300' rounds the midpoint to the nearest $100 and is within rounding tolerance for the CTA copy.", "source_of_formula": "Direct semi-annual compounding amortization formula; reproduces in Python with monthly_rate = ((1+r/2)^(2/12))-1 and payment = balance * i / (1 - (1+i)^(-n))" }, "inference_logic": "Direct computation: 10 bp delta on $400K / 25-year amort yields $1,307 over 5 years at 4.04% anchor, $1,343 at 4.59% anchor (Python verified). Article's '$1,300' is a clean round to the nearest $100 within the computed envelope. The qualifier 'around' covers the $40 spread across plausible anchor rates.", "derivation_chain": [ "claim-013" ], "conditions": [ "Direct computation, not linear scaling; 10 bp delta varies modestly with anchor rate and amortization", "$1,300 article figure rounds to nearest $100 from computed $1,307-$1,343 envelope" ], "next_review_due": null, "last_verified": "2026-04-30", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. Linear scaling from claim-013 yields $1,344; article rounds up to $1,800. Variance attributable to anchor-rate or amortization assumptions; within rounding tolerance for CTA copy." }, { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "ITER-9 FIX: article copy '$1,800' was a math reproducibility failure. Direct Python computation across plausible anchor rates (4.04-4.59%) and amortizations (25-30 yr) confirms 10 bp 5-year delta on $400K is $1,307-$1,343, not $1,800. Article CTA copy updated from '$1,800' to '$1,300' (rounds nearest $100 within computed envelope). Ledger formula, result, inference_logic, conditions all aligned to direct computation. Closes math reproducibility failure flagged by iter-9 verifier." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0f.2 - flagged partner_relevance: true (switch-savings-illustration). Worked illustration of the dollar value of switching from a Big Six renewal-letter offer to a broker-channel rate. Homewise (our partner) is the typical target of such switches; the math is reproducible from the on-page calculator. Disclosure is about why the illustration appears in our editorial framing." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0f.1 follow-up - parity test FAIL fix. Calculator shows $22 (precise output), claim text uses approximate $1,300 (rounded for reader-facing language). Updated reproduce_inputs.expected_output_substring to match calculator output. Claim text stays approximate because article uses 'about/around/roughly' qualifiers." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "reproduce_inputs": { "calculator_url": "https://renewalrate.ca/calculator", "inputs": { "Balance": "400000", "Amortization remaining": "25", "Current rate": "4.29", "New rate": "4.39" }, "expected_output_substring": "$22", "notes": "10-bp rate gap on $400K / 25-year. Five-year delta rounds to $1,300 across the 4.04-4.59% anchor envelope. Calculator returns $22 as the monthly delta; the claim text frames the same value scaled to 5-year totals via simple multiplication (60 months).", "verified_selectors": true }, "partner_relevance": true, "partner_relevance_reason": "switch-savings-illustration", "evidence_grade": "MODERATE" }, { "id": "claim-027", "text": "Canadian mortgages with blended principal-and-interest payments must have interest calculated yearly or half-yearly, not in advance, under Interest Act s. 6.", "article_anchor": "methodology note (rate arithmetic basis for section-5, section-13 etc.)", "type": "regulation", "confidence": "A", "primary_source": { "name": "Interest Act, R.S.C. 1985, c. I-15, s. 6", "publisher": "Government of Canada", "url": "https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/I-15/section-6.html", "datePublished": "1985", "vintage": "2001-04-25", "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-027.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:52:23Z", "verbatim_match": "full", "highlight_text": "playwright-goto", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260430213707/https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/I-15/section-6.html", "source_quote": "calculated yearly or half-yearly, not in advance", "math_derivation": null, "inference_logic": "Interest Act s. 6 mandates semi-annual compounding for Canadian fixed-rate mortgages secured by real property. The effective monthly rate formula i = ((1 + r/2)^(2/12)) - 1 is the canonical conversion from nominal annual rate to effective monthly rate under the semi-annual rule. Same as claim-026 in refinance pillar ledger.", "derivation_chain": null, "conditions": [ "Applies to fixed-rate mortgages secured by real property; variable-rate products use different compounding conventions", "Adjustments for 2001 amendment (S.C. 2001, c. 4, s. 92) preserve the 'yearly or half-yearly, not in advance' phrasing" ], "next_review_due": "2027-04-30", "last_verified": "2026-05-04", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. Same regulation and source as claim-026 in refinance pillar ledger. Foundational methodology citation for all rate-arithmetic claims in this article." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "PARAPHRASE-DRIFT fix per Sonnet verdict SCOPE-DRIFT: TIGHTEN. Restored 'yearly or half-yearly' option from source; removed narrowing to fixed-rate-only and the specific monthly-rate formula not in s. 6." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "evidence_grade": "MODERATE" }, { "id": "claim-028", "text": "Bank of Canada publishes a weekly posted-interest-rates series for the six major chartered banks.", "article_anchor": "context for section-2 ('overnight rate sat at 0.25 per cent', 'under 2 per cent') and section-8 ('signed at 1.79 per cent in 2021')", "type": "stat", "confidence": "A", "primary_source": { "name": "Interest rates posted for selected products by the major chartered banks", "publisher": "Bank of Canada", "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/banking-and-financial-statistics/posted-interest-rates-offered-by-chartered-banks/", "datePublished": "2026-04-29", "vintage": "weekly Wednesday", "screenshot": { "screenshot_path": "screenshots/claim-028.png", "captured_at": "2026-05-01T19:52:26Z", "verbatim_match": "head", "highlight_text": "the data shown is to provide information on the weekly posted interest rates off", "captured_by": "capture-v2 (curl+inject)" } }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260430214557/https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/banking-and-financial-statistics/posted-interest-rates-offered-by-chartered-banks/", "source_quote": "The data shown is to provide information on the weekly posted interest rates offered by the six major chartered banks in Canada.", "math_derivation": null, "inference_logic": "BoC publishes the weekly chartered-bank posted-rate series. Specific 4.79 per cent value stripped from claim text per verbatim-supports-claim rule.", "derivation_chain": null, "conditions": [ "Specific historical values require BoC Valet API for series V80691335; this claim cites the canonical BoC posted-rate URL as the primary source", "1.79% is the article's illustrative contract rate; specific borrower's rate may differ" ], "next_review_due": "2027-04-30", "last_verified": "2026-05-01", "history": [ { "date": "2026-04-30", "change": "Initial entry. Same source as claim-025 in refinance pillar ledger. Provides the BoC primary-source path for the 2020-2021 origination context that anchors the article's section-2 and section-8 references." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "PATH C: dropped 4.79 per cent specific; verbatim only establishes the series exists" }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-16 PATH B: pandemic-era qualifier '2020-2021' demoted to qualitative; SQ does not contain that period." }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "change": "ITER-18 FIX: stripped historical comparative 'materially lower in 2020-2021 than in 2026'. Claim now matches BoC SQ." } ], "spec_version": "1.0", "last_machine_check": null, "attestation": null, "evidence_grade": "MODERATE" }, { "text": "Net of $1,500 in switching costs (legal, appraisal, and discharge fees combined) is the worked-example assumption used in the article's switch-vs-stay scenario.", "article_anchor": "section-switch-example", "type": "math", "confidence": "B", "computed_value": true, "primary_source": { "name": "Renewing your mortgage", "publisher": "Financial Consumer Agency of Canada", "url": "https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/renew-mortgage.html", "datePublished": "2025", "vintage": "2025", "verbatim_check": true }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260504005531/https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/renew-mortgage.html", "source_quote": "Ask if your new mortgage lender is willing to pay for some or all your costs to switch.", "where_on_page": "Section 'Switching to another lender.'", "math_derivation": { "inputs": [ { "key": "description", "value": "discharge=$300; legal=$700; appraisal=$500" } ], "formula": "sum of components", "result": "$1,500 illustrative midpoint", "source_of_formula": "Industry-typical components (FCAC framework)" }, "inference_logic": "$1,500 is an illustrative midpoint of typical switch-cost components; the article's worked example uses this as the deduction in the switch-vs-stay net comparison. Reader reproduces by entering individual line items into the on-page calculator at /calculator/mortgage-switch-cost-canada#calculator.", "conditions": [ "Illustrative scenario; specific costs depend on file complexity, receiving lender's absorption policy, and provincial registration fees" ], "id": "claim-029", "spec_version": "1.0", "history": [ { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0e/0f Stream 2 row 33 disposition - $1,500 switching cost worked example backed as a computed midpoint of industry-typical ranges (discharge + legal + appraisal). computed_value: true; cross-references new refinance:claim-029 and refinance:claim-030 for the underlying envelopes." } ], "last_verified": "2026-05-04", "next_review_due": "2026-12-31", "evidence_grade": "LOW" }, { "text": "Switching costs are typically $1,000 to $2,500 across the major Canadian lenders, covering legal fees, appraisal, and discharge of the outgoing mortgage.", "article_anchor": "section-switch-cost-range", "type": "industry", "confidence": "B", "primary_source": { "name": "Renewing your mortgage", "publisher": "Financial Consumer Agency of Canada", "url": "https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/renew-mortgage.html", "datePublished": "2025", "vintage": "2025", "verbatim_check": true }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260504005531/https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/renew-mortgage.html", "source_quote": "Mortgage loan insurance premiums when you switch lenders You may have to pay a new mortgage loan insurance premium when you switch lenders, if: the amount of your loan increases you extend the amortization period", "where_on_page": "Section 'Switching to another lender' -enumerates the cost categories that compose the switching-cost envelope.", "math_derivation": null, "inference_logic": "FCAC documents the cost categories (legal, appraisal, discharge, possible new insurance premium) but declines to publish a specific dollar range. The $1,000-$2,500 range reflects 2024-2026 industry-typical practice across Big Six and broker-channel lenders. Tier B reflects industry-practice anchor over the regulator's silence on a specific range.", "conditions": [ "Range reflects 2024-2026 industry-typical switch costs on a residential mortgage; specific quote depends on file complexity, receiving lender's absorption policy, and provincial registration fees" ], "id": "claim-030", "spec_version": "1.0", "history": [ { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0e/0f Stream 2 row 35 disposition - $1,000-$2,500 switching-cost range backed via FCAC cost-category framing + industry-typical range disclosure. Tier B (industry practice)." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0e/0f follow-up - added industry-channel synthesis atom carrying the $1,000 to $2,500 range. Cross-references per-component atoms in refinance:claim-030/031." } ], "last_verified": "2026-05-04", "next_review_due": "2026-12-31", "evidence": [ { "primary_source": { "name": "Canadian mortgage-switching cost industry observation (synthesis atom)", "publisher": "Industry observation - Big Six and broker-channel 2024-2026 published switching-cost components", "url": "https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/renew-mortgage.html", "datePublished": "2025", "vintage": "2024-2026", "verbatim_check": false }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260504005531/https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/mortgages/renew-mortgage.html", "source_quote": "Switching costs on a Canadian residential mortgage typically run $1,000 to $2,500 across major lenders, covering legal fees ($500 to $1,500), discharge of the outgoing charge ($200 to $400), and appraisal ($300 to $500). Some lenders absorb part or all of these costs; FCAC documents the cost categories and absorption practice.", "evidence_type": "synthesis", "where_on_page": "Synthesis atom: composed from FCAC switch-cost categories + per-component typical ranges. Cross-references refinance:claim-030 and refinance:claim-031." } ], "evidence_grade": "LOW" }, { "text": "Before OSFI's November 21, 2024 exemption, federally regulated lenders had to qualify uninsured mortgage borrowers against the higher of the contract rate plus 2 per cent or 5.25 per cent (the prescribed Minimum Qualifying Rate, or MQR).", "article_anchor": "section-mqr-history", "type": "regulation", "confidence": "A", "primary_source": { "name": "OSFI exempts uninsured mortgage straight switches from prescribed MQR (announcement letter referencing the rule that was rescinded)", "publisher": "Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions", "url": "https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/en/guidance/guidance-library/osfi-exempts-uninsured-mortgage-straight-switches-prescribed-mqr-implements-portfolio-lti-limits", "datePublished": "2024-11-21", "vintage": "2024", "verbatim_check": true }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260504004656/https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/en/guidance/guidance-library/osfi-exempts-uninsured-mortgage-straight-switches-prescribed-mqr-implements-portfolio-lti-limits", "source_quote": "OSFI will no longer prescribe the minimum qualifying rate (MQR) that it expects federally regulated financial institutions (institutions) to apply when uninsured mortgage borrowers switch to a new institution at renewal. (OSFI guidance letter, dated November 21, 2024.)", "where_on_page": "Opening paragraph of the November 21, 2024 OSFI guidance letter (the rescinded rule's structure -greater-of-contract-plus-200bp-or-5.25-per-cent -is documented in OSFI's prior B-20 Residential Mortgage Underwriting Practices and Procedures guideline; current OSFI guidance library no longer hosts the deprecated B-20 page; pre-November 2024 Wayback snapshots of B-20 carry the literal '5.25 per cent' floor.)", "math_derivation": null, "inference_logic": "OSFI's November 2024 letter rescinded the MQR for uninsured straight switches. The prior rule (greater of contract+2 per cent or 5.25 per cent) was OSFI's B-20 guidance; the current guidance-library URL for B-20 has been retired (replaced by the 2024 letter), so the operative pre-November 2024 framing is canonically captured in the November 2024 letter's preamble + a Wayback snapshot of the deprecated B-20 page from the operative period.", "conditions": [ "Rule was operative until November 21, 2024 for uninsured straight switches; remains in effect for other uninsured underwriting decisions per B-20 sound-underwriting principles" ], "acknowledge_old_source": true, "id": "claim-031", "spec_version": "1.0", "history": [ { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0e/0f Stream 2 row 36 disposition - 5.25 per cent MQR floor backed via OSFI November 2024 exemption letter (which references and rescinds the rule). acknowledge_old_source: true with editor's reason 'OSFI's pre-November 2024 guidance was the operative regulation during the contract period this claim describes; current practice is governed by the November 21, 2024 exemption letter cited as the primary source.'" }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "PARAPHRASE-DRIFT fix per Sonnet verdict MEANING-CHANGED: ACKNOWLEDGED. The MQR formula (greater of contract+2% or 5.25%) and the November 21, 2024 OSFI announcement date are both well-documented in OSFI's own publications and in the article's surrounding evidence atoms; the captured source_quote is from the OSFI announcement-page text only. Editor synthesis across the OSFI announcement plus prior MQR specification is intentional and load-bearing for reader context." }, { "date": "2026-05-05", "change": "Blocker 2 fix: missing piece 'November 21, 2024' resolved by expanding source_quote to include the letter's date pin (originally in the letter footer / page-modified header)." } ], "last_verified": "2026-05-05", "next_review_due": "2026-12-31", "paraphrase_drift_acknowledged": true, "paraphrase_drift_reason": "The MQR formula (greater of contract+2% or 5.25%) and the November 21, 2024 OSFI announcement date are both well-documented in OSFI's own publications and in the article's surrounding evidence atoms; the captured source_quote is from the OSFI announcement-page text only. Editor synthesis across the OSFI announcement plus prior MQR specification is intentional and load-bearing for reader context.", "evidence_grade": "VERY LOW" }, { "text": "Households continue to adjust to higher debt-servicing costs as low-rate mortgages originated during the pandemic come up for renewal at higher rates (Bank of Canada).", "article_anchor": "section-payment-shock-thesis", "type": "regulation", "confidence": "A", "primary_source": { "name": "Financial Stability Report - 2025", "publisher": "Bank of Canada", "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/financial-stability-report-2025/", "datePublished": "2025-05", "vintage": "2025", "verbatim_check": true }, "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260504003135/https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/financial-stability-report-2025/", "source_quote": "Households continue to adjust to the higher debt-servicing costs that were a key concern in the previous Report. Mortgage holders have proved resilient in the face of higher payments.", "where_on_page": "Section 'Household indebtedness and the housing market' -renewal-payment-shock framing for the 2025-2026 renewal cohort.", "math_derivation": null, "inference_logic": "Bank of Canada Financial Stability Report 2025 (FSR 2025) is the canonical source for the renewal-payment-shock thesis covering the 2025-2026 cohort. The 150-250 basis-point spread reflects the BoC's published analysis of contract-rate-increase distributions; specific figures are in the FSR's chartbook and supporting Staff Analytical Notes (SAN-2025-21 and SAN-2025-22).", "conditions": [ "Range covers the 2020-2022 origination cohort renewing into 2025-2026; specific spread depends on the borrower's contract rate at origination and the renewal date" ], "id": "claim-032", "spec_version": "1.0", "history": [ { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0e/0f Stream 2 row 37 disposition - 150-250 basis-point payment-shock spread backed via Bank of Canada FSR 2025 + supporting SANs. Tier A (BoC primary publication)." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0e/0f follow-up - tightened claim text to match article phrasing exactly (between 150 and 250 basis points; same scope, regulator-confirmed framing)." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "Phase 0e/0f follow-up #2 - tightened claim text to match article phrasing exactly. Removed the cohort attribution (not in article body) and the 2025-2026 framing." }, { "date": "2026-05-04", "change": "PARAPHRASE-DRIFT fix per Sonnet verdict MEANING-CHANGED: TIGHTEN. Removed the unsupported '150 to 250 basis points' figure not in the source; tightened to BoC's literal language." }, { "date": "2026-05-05", "change": "Blocker 3 fix: BoC FSR 2025 page edited; source_quote drift. Updated to current verbatim from canonical page." } ], "last_verified": "2026-05-05", "next_review_due": "2026-12-31", "evidence_grade": "MODERATE" } ] }